The contest for New Mexico Governor is currently a statistical dead heat with 44% of likely voters supporting Dona Ana District Attorney Susana Martinez, 43% supporting Lt. Governor Diane Denish, and 13% are undecided. The ballot test numbers are based on a Magellan Strategies survey of 542 likely New Mexico voters fielded Monday, June 21st. Looking at ballot test results by voter subgroup, we find Republican Susana Martinez doing very well among men (+17) and Democrat Diane Denish with a 12 point lead among women.
It is apparent that the Martinez Campaign has been successful appealing to 20% of Democrat voters. For the Martinez Campaign to be in a position to win, it is critical that she maintain and grow her current Democrat support of 20%. Democrats traditionally contribute 53% to the overall vote in general elections, so numerically Susana Martinez will need support from as many Democrat voters as possible.
Congressional Generic Ballot Test
“If the election for US Congress was being held today, and all you know about the two candidates was that one was a Democrat, and the other was a Republican, for whom would you vote? The Democrat candidate or the Republican candidate?”
Among all voters, 45% of respondents would vote for the Democrat candidate and 38% for the Republican candidate, a seven point margin. As the table below indicates, the Democrat Party brand is very strong among women and Hispanic voters. The Republican Party brand is strongest among men and independent voters. Responses by Congressional District are interesting considering the 3rd Congressional District is the most Democratic by voter registration (55%), compared to CD2 (47%) and CD1 (48%).
Download survey release, toplines, crosstabs and presentation below.
NM Governor Survey Press Release 062310
NM Governor Survey Topline Results 062310