Colorado “First Time” Primary Voters Dominate Elections in Both Parties (8/10/10)

In the Colorado Democrat and Republican primary elections, voters that have never voted in a primary are having a big impact on the overall primary vote.  In the Republican primary at least 87,314 voters, or 28% of Republican votes cast have been among voters that have never voted in a primary.  This is the largest subgroup of returned ballots when compiling returned ballots by primary vote history.  In the Democrat primary at least 90,901 voters, or 32.5% have returned a ballot and have never voted in a primary.  We say “at least” because we were unable to match 6,727 Democrat ballots and 11,450 Republican ballots to our voter file.  Looking at the counts of Republican voters who have returned ballots by vote history we find:

Past Primary	Ballots	Pct. Of
Vote History	Returned	TotalVote
0 of 4	87,314	28.0%
1 of 4	68,623	22.0%
2 of 4	54,745	17.6%
3 of 4	51,879	16.6%
4 of 4	49,123	15.8%
	311,684

In the Democrat primary the returned ballots by vote history show:

Past Primary	Ballots	Pct. Of
Vote History	Returned	Total Vote
0 of 4	90,901	32.5%
1 of 4	67,948	24.3%
2 of 4	49,117	17.6%
3 of 4	40,590	14.5%
4 of 4	30,981	11.1%
	279,537

A political observer can draw a number of conclusions based on these data of first time primary voters in both parties.  But it is clear that campaigns that recognized the growth of these “first time” primary voters early on should do better in tonight’s primary finale.