In our final poll of the New Hampshire Republican primary for US Senate, we find Kelly Ayotte leading Ovide Lamontagne by 4 points, 35% to 31%. Bill Binnie is third with 14%, Jim Bender with 10%, the generic “another candidate” receives 3%, and 7% are undecided. These results are based on a September 12th automated survey of 1,083 likely Republican and independent primary voters who intend to vote in the September 14th primary. This survey has a margin of error of +/- 2.98% at the 95% confidence interval.
The story in this race is the 10 point surge in support for Ovide Lamontagne since our last survey on September 1st. His increase in support is broad, but not limited to any particular subgroup of voters. He has improved his standing among every major voting subgroup in the state by 9 to 11 points. Kelly Ayotte is still leading the race, and has increased her support by 1 to 3 points across major voting subgroups. Clearly she has been successful “holding” her voters in place.
Download survey press release, toplines, crosstabs and presentaiton below.