Magellan Data and Mapping Strategies are pleased to present the topline results of a 688N survey of likely 2010 general election voters in Colorado’s Second Congressional District. The interviews were conducted September 20th, 2010. This survey has a margin of error of +/- 3.73% at the 95 percent confidence interval. This survey was weighted based upon voter turnout demographics from the 2008, 2006, 2004 and 2002 general election cycles.
Among all voters, 43% think that things in the country are headed in the right direction and 57% think things are off on the wrong track. Male voters are more pessimistic than female voters, with 63% responding that things are on the wrong track and 37%. Among female voters 49% think things are headed in the right direction and 51% think things are on the wrong track. Among unaffiliated voters 37% think things are headed in the right direction and 63% think things are on the wrong track. Democrat voters have a much different view of the direction of the country than Republican or unaffiliated voters, with 71% responding things are going in the right direction and only 29% thinking things are on the wrong track.
Among all voters, 44% of respondents prefer the Democrat candidate and 42% the Republican candidate. These numbers are reflective of the poor mood nationally for the Democrat party, and taking into account the turnout demographics for this district are 40% Democrat, 29% Republican and 31% unaffiliated. Among unaffiliated voters 32% prefer the Democrat candidate and 45% prefer the Republican candidate. Clearly these are not good news for Democrat incumbent Jared Polis.
Despite the poor environment for incumbents, Jared Polis maintains a 12 point lead over Republican Stephen Bailey, 48% to 36%. There are stark differences in the ballot test between male and female voters. Among male voters, the Stephen Bailey leads Jared Polis by 1 point, 44% to 43%. Among female voters, Jared Polis leads by 23 points, 52% to 29%. With five weeks remaining in the election, and two weeks before absentee ballots go out, it would not be surprising to see this race tighten up.
Download survey press release and topline results below.