Magellan Data and Mapping Strategies today released the results of an autodial survey of 720 likely 2012 general election voters in Nevada. This early measurement of potential 2012 US Senate general election ballot tests finds Democrat Congresswoman Shelley Berkley with a two point lead over Republican Senator Dean Heller, 46% to 44%, a statistical tie. The ballot test of Democrat businessman Byron Georgiou and Sen. Dean Heller finds the Senator leading 46% to 33%, a margin of 13 points. In 2012 the early political fireworks in Nevada will be the Democrat primary for the United States Senate. While Shelly Berkley has the full support of the state and national Democrat establishment, Byron Georgiou could potentially weaken the Democrat’s chances of picking up the seat.
Nevada will be a battleground state in the 2012 Presidential race, and the fight for the state’s six electoral votes will be heavily contested by both parties. Many political observers have commented that President Obama’s job approval and the state of the economy will play a central role in voter’s decision making process. Our survey finds President Obama with a net negative approval rating among all respondents, with 53% disapproving the job he is doing and 41% approving. It is no secret that younger voters turning out to vote are vital to the President’s re-election chances. Among voters aged 18-34 only 45% approve of the job he is doing and 48% disapprove. These are not good numbers for the Obama campaign, and their challenge will be motivating them to vote in 2012.
Download survey press release, toplines, crosstabs and presentation below.