Nevada 2012 Republican Presidential Caucus Survey (10/24/11)
Louisville, CO – Magellan Strategies today released the results of an autodial survey of 673 likely Nevada Republican Presidential caucus goers. The survey finds Mitt Romney leading Herman Cain by 12 points, 38% to 26% respectively, and Newt Gingrich third with 16%. The rest of the field shows Ron Paul with 7%, Rick Perry with 5%, Michele Bachmann with 2%, Rick Santorum with 1%, Jon Huntsman with 1%, and “some other candidate” with 1%. Three percent of respondents are undecided.
Since our last survey at the end of August, Mitt Romney has increased his overall support by 14 points from 24% to 38%. Looking at the ballot test by voter subgroup, we find Mitt Romney with very large margins among women (+22), seniors (+18), and not surprisingly Mormon voters (+67). Among all respondents, 16% identified themselves as Mormon. The race is much tighter among male voters (Romney +2), self-identified Tea Party members (Romney -2) and voters that did not vote in the 2008 Nevada GOP Presidential Caucus (Romney -1). We consider the latter two populations “Sharon Angle” voters, and if Mitt Romney can remain competitive among these two groups he will be in a strong position to win.
Download survey press release, toplines, crosstabs and presentation below.
NV 2012 Republican Presidential Caucus Survey Release 102411
NV 2012 Republican Presidential Caucus Survey Topline Results 102411
NV 2012 Republican Presidential Caucus Survey Crosstabs 102411
NV 2012 Republican Presidential Caucus Survey Presentation 102411
