Louisville, CO – Magellan Strategies today released the results of an autodial survey of 673 likely Nevada Republican Presidential caucus goers. The survey finds Mitt Romney leading Herman Cain by 12 points, 38% to 26% respectively, and Newt Gingrich third with 16%. The rest of the field shows Ron Paul with 7%, Rick Perry with 5%, Michele Bachmann with 2%, Rick Santorum with 1%, Jon Huntsman with 1%, and “some other candidate” with 1%. Three percent of respondents are undecided.
Since our last survey at the end of August, Mitt Romney has increased his overall support by 14 points from 24% to 38%. Looking at the ballot test by voter subgroup, we find Mitt Romney with very large margins among women (+22), seniors (+18), and not surprisingly Mormon voters (+67). Among all respondents, 16% identified themselves as Mormon. The race is much tighter among male voters (Romney +2), self-identified Tea Party members (Romney -2) and voters that did not vote in the 2008 Nevada GOP Presidential Caucus (Romney -1). We consider the latter two populations “Sharon Angle” voters, and if Mitt Romney can remain competitive among these two groups he will be in a strong position to win.
Download survey press release, toplines, crosstabs and presentation below.