Amendment 69 Survey Results
Magellan Strategies today released the results of a live landline and cell phone survey of 500 likely general election voters in Colorado. The interviews were conducted August 29th to 31st and the survey has a margin of error of +/- 4.38% at the 95 percent confidence interval.
The survey finds strong opposition to Amendment 69, the ColoradoCare universal healthcare plan. Among all respondents, 27% would vote yes and approve the amendment, 65% would vote no and reject it, and 8% of voters are undecided. Intensity is very strong among voters who oppose the amendment, with 45% of respondents saying they definitely intend to vote no. Only 10% of respondents definitely intend to vote yes. Not surprisingly, support for Amendment 69 is strongest among Democrats and voters aged 18 to 34. However, slightly more Democrats oppose the amendment than support it, 45% to 41% respectively. Among all voters aged 18 to 34, 40% support it and 59% oppose it. The following table shows the Amendment 69 ballot test by voter subgroup.
Opposition to Amendment 69 Has Increased Since January
Since our Amendment 69 survey in January, voter opposition has increased by 15 points from 50% to 65%. Support for the amendment has also declined 16 points, going from 43% to 27%. These findings are not that surprising considering Colorado’s history of rejecting large tax increases. We believe the amendment asks too much from Colorado voters by asking them to raise their state income tax by 10%. While the dream of universal healthcare may sound appealing to some Colorado voters, two thirds are unwilling to pay up for it. With more than 60 days until Election Day, and five weeks until ballots are mailed out on October 17th, this survey indicates it is very unlikely that Amendment 69 will be approved by voters.
Survey Weighting Decisions
The survey results are weighted to reflect the age, gender, and party turnout demographics of the 2012 Presidential election in Colorado. While we do think the 2016 voter turnout demographics in Colorado could be different than 2012, we think it is too early to quantify a drop in voter turnout intensity by party or age group. We also believe there are strong arguments to be made that Donald Trump’s candidacy could depress some Republican voters from casting a ballot. However, there is also a plausible argument to be made that Hillary Clinton’s campaign is struggling to motivate and inspire some Democrats and younger voters to cast a ballot. The truth is until ballots are mailed out on October 17th, we will not know if there is a measurable drop in voter turnout by age group or party.
The survey sample was randomly drawn from a Colorado voter file among households containing at least one registered voter. This survey topline and crosstab results are included in this document. Any questions regarding this survey or our methodology should be directed to David Flaherty. He can be reached at 303-861-8585 or by email at firstname.lastname@example.org.
Survey Commissioned By
This survey and the Amendment 69 ballot question was not commissioned or paid for by any issue committee, campaign, individual, or independent expenditure group.
About Magellan Strategies
Magellan Strategies offers a wide array of services to candidate campaigns, ballot issue campaigns, government relations firms, trade associations and local and county governments. Our services include polling, survey research, focus groups, voter data mining, voter data analysis and campaign consulting and management. Our offices are located in Louisville, Colorado. To learn more about our company please visit http://www.MagellanStrategies.com or call 303-861-8585.