Magellan Strategies Blog

Nebraska US Senate General Election Survey (1/15/12)

Louisville, CO – Magellan Strategies today released the results of an automated survey of 675 likely Nebraska general election voters. The survey was fielded on January 10^th and 11^th, and has a margin of error of 3.77% at the 95 percent confidence interval. The survey looks at the strength of former Democrat Senator Bob Kerrey in ballot tests with Attorney General Jon Bruning and Treasurer Don Stenberg. The survey also includes ballot tests of potential Democrat candidates State Representative Steve Lathrop, and former Lt. Governor Kim Robak.

Bob Kerrey’s high water mark of support is 40% in ballot tests that include Jon Bruning and Don Stenberg. Among all respondents, 43% have a favorable opinion of Bob Kerrey, 43% have an unfavorable opinion of him, and 11% have no opinion. At this time, regardless of who Bob Kerrey runs against, he trails both Republican candidates.

Download survey press release, toplines, crosstabs, and presentation below:

Nebraska US Senate Survey Press Release 011512

Nebraska US Senate General Election Survey Topline Results 011512

Nebraska US Senate General Election Survey Crosstabs 011512

Nebraska US Senate General Election Survey Presentation 011512

New Jersey Dem Incumbents Pascrell, Rothman and Payne Bottom Three Among Delegation Population Totals (2/2/11)

New Jersey’s Congressional delegation will be losing a member after the 2011 redistricting cycle, going from 13 seats in Congress to 12. The 2010 resident population of New Jersey is 8,791,894. Dividing that number by 12, we arrive at the ideal population for each Congressional District of 732,658. In other words, after the 2011 redistricting process is complete, each of the 12 districts must have a population of 732,658.

In a state that is losing a Congressional District, it traditionally bodes well for an incumbent to have a population that is as close to the ideal population as possible. The chances of a district remaining intact are greater, because fewer precincts or townships need to be added or removed from the district to achieve the ideal population.

Unfortunately for Democrat Representatives Pascrell, Rothman, and Payne they win the award for the 3 districts that are the farthest from the ideal population, and to make matters worse, all three members are all within the same area within New Jersey. This points to the likelyhood that their districts will be merged together in a new Congressional plan. It is also important to point out that this is due to the reality of the population shifts within the state, not a political agenda.

The following table shows the 2010 population for each member, and the population deviation from the ideal Congressional population (732,658).

CD	Member	2010 Pop	Ideal Pop	Deviation
01	Andrews-D	669,169	732,658	-63,489
02	LoBiondo-R	692,205	732,658	-40,453
03	Runyan-R	680,341	732,658	-52,317
04	Smith-R	724,596	732,658	-8,062
05	Garrett-R	666,551	732,658	-66,107
06	Pallone-D	668,806	732,658	-63,852
07	Lance-R	672,885	732,658	-59,773
08	Pascrell-D	660,424	732,658	-72,234
09	Rothman-D	661,379	732,658	-71,279
10	Payne-D	634,343	732,658	-98,315
11	Frelinghuysen-R	674,349	732,658	-58,309
12	Holt-D	701,881	732,658	-30,777
13	Sires-D	684,965	732,658	-47,693

Census Bureau Releases NJ, VA, MS and LA Redistricting Data (2/2/11)

The 2011 redistricting cycle officially started today. The US Census Bureau released the P.L. 94-171 redistricting data for New Jersey, Virginia, Mississippi and Louisiana. Next week the Census Bureau will release redistricting data for five more states including Vermont, Iowa, Maryland, Arkansas and Indiana. To follow the schedule of future state redistricting data releases go to http://2010.census.gov/news/press-kits/redistricting.html.

Cell Phone Interviewing Will Be Mandatory for All Surveys in the Very Near Future (12/31/10)

It is no surprise to the survey research community and knowledgeable political observers that the growing population of cell phone only households will require reliable surveys in the near future to include both land line and cell phone sample. Our friends at the American Association of Public Opinion Research, (AAPOR), in late 2010 released the latest findings of the AAPOR Cell Phone Task Force (www.AAPOR.org). The report contains thorough research, data and information that is incredibly helpful to researchers in determining how to survey the cell phone only and cell phone/land line population. There are significant differences in the demographics between individuals that use their cell phones “most of the time”, compared to using a land line phone “most of the time”. According to extensive reaseach conducted by Pew Research Center and AP/GfK-Roper using RDD (random digit dialing) cell phone sample:

RDD cell phone sample is demographically more male compared to land line RDD cell sample, 57%/59% to 43%/41% respectively.

RDD cell phone sample is demographically younger compared to land line RDD cell sample, among 18-34 39%/36% to 13%/11% respectively.

RDD cell phone sample is demographically less white compared to landline RDD cell sample, 67%/74% to 79% to 81% respectively.

The bottom line is the growth of cell phone only and cell phone/land line households will require a dual frame approach for all surveys to achieve acceptable coverage of the population being surveyed. Magellan intends to invest significant resources in 2011 to test and finalize a process that is affordable and reliable for all our clients.

Census Bureau to Release Congressional Reapportionment Numbers Next Week (12/14/10)

The much anticipated Congressional reapportionment numbers will be announced on Tuesday, December 21st, 2010. The US Census Bureau will release the country’s total population, each state’s population, and most importantly for political observers the number of Congressional Districts for each state. Traditionally this information is released on New Years Eve, so give the Census Bureau credit for working a little overtime. The release of the population data is the official start of the redistricting season.

There are always surprises in the reapportionment of Congressional seats. States that are projected to gain Congressional seats include Texas (4), Florida (1), Georgia (1), South Carolina (1), Nevada (1), Arizona (1), Utah (1), and Washington (1). States that are expected to lose a Congressional seat include Ohio (2), Louisiana (1), Massachusetts (1), New Jersey (1), New York (1), Pennsylvania (1), Michigan (1), Minnesota (1), Illinois (1), and Iowa (1).

Magellan Data and Mapping Strategies is not calling housholds in OHIO (9/9/10)

For the past two days, September 7th and 8th, some individual or business has been calling households claiming to be “Magellan Strategies”. The calls are being made using Global Crossing technology. For anyone reading this post, please understand we are NOT calling any households in Ohio, or have we called anyone in the past two days in Ohio. We have received numerous calls and emails from people in the following area codes in Ohio asking us to stop the calling:

513, 937, 440, 740

We want the public to know that we have used the number 202-747-7314 in the past to conduct our surveys. We also want the public to know that when we do a survey, we clearly state at the beginning of the survey who we are, “Magellan Strategies”, we provide an opt out option at the end of every survey, and we provide a telephone number of our office in Louisville, Colorado. We do not deceive people in any of our survey research, and make every attempt to allow respondents to opt out. We also do not contact people past 8pm in the evening.

This morning we will be trying to find out what the message is, who is doing the calling and intend to press charges against the firm or individual that is pretending to be Magellan Strategies, or Magellan Data and Mapping Strategies. We are reputable and transparent survey research firm that adheres to the survey standards of the American Association of Public Opinion Research and the Marketing Research Association.

If you have been called in the past two days and wish to speak to me personally about the calling, please contact me at 303-861-8585.

David Flaherty, CEO
Magellan Data and Mapping Strategies
dflaherty@magellanstrategies.com
303-861-8585

Colorado “First Time” Primary Voters Dominate Elections in Both Parties (8/10/10)

In the Colorado Democrat and Republican primary elections, voters that have never voted in a primary are having a big impact on the overall primary vote. In the Republican primary at least 87,314 voters, or 28% of Republican votes cast have been among voters that have never voted in a primary. This is the largest subgroup of returned ballots when compiling returned ballots by primary vote history. In the Democrat primary at least 90,901 voters, or 32.5% have returned a ballot and have never voted in a primary. We say “at least” because we were unable to match 6,727 Democrat ballots and 11,450 Republican ballots to our voter file. Looking at the counts of Republican voters who have returned ballots by vote history we find:

Past Primary	Ballots	Pct. Of
Vote History	Returned	TotalVote
0 of 4	87,314	28.0%
1 of 4	68,623	22.0%
2 of 4	54,745	17.6%
3 of 4	51,879	16.6%
4 of 4	49,123	15.8%
	311,684

In the Democrat primary the returned ballots by vote history show:

Past Primary	Ballots	Pct. Of
Vote History	Returned	Total Vote
0 of 4	90,901	32.5%
1 of 4	67,948	24.3%
2 of 4	49,117	17.6%
3 of 4	40,590	14.5%
4 of 4	30,981	11.1%
	279,537

A political observer can draw a number of conclusions based on these data of first time primary voters in both parties. But it is clear that campaigns that recognized the growth of these “first time” primary voters early on should do better in tonight’s primary finale.

Which one of these Republican US Senate candidates killed the Taxpayer Bill of Rights?

Republican primary voters across the country are not very forgiving this year when it comes to Republican primary candidates that have a history of increasing government spending by billions of dollars, or even worse removing taxpayer rebates from the books.

Last week Colorado US Senate candidate Jane Norton attended a fundraiser with US Senate candidates Marco Rubio of Florida and Pat Toomey of Pennsylvania. Marco Rubio has become the champion of fiscal conservatives and the Tea Party movement because they trust him to stop the federal spending spigot in Washington more than his opponent Governor Charlie Crist who embraced federal bailout money. Pat Toomey is the former head Club for Growth, an organization dedicated to making life very difficult for RINO’s, (Republicans in Name Only), who have a bad habit of spending millions of federal dollars on earmarks and pet projects through the Appropriations Committee.

So what are Jane Norton’s credentials as a champion of cutting government spending? Well as Lieutenant Governor of Colorado she supported Referendum C back in 2005, which killed one of the most effective tools ever created to control government spending. Referendum C also killed TABOR, also known as the Taxpayer Bill of Rights, which rebated $3.2 BILLION dollars to hard working Colorado taxpayers between 1997 and 2002. So what did Jane Norton do for us taxpayers for supporting Referendum C?

Well by according to the Independence Institute of Golden Colorado, “Starting in 2011 Referendum C is estimated to grow state spending by $995 MILLION, plus annual increases for population and inflation every year thereafter, assuming there isn’t another economic downturn.” Referendum C, The Wrong Solution for the Wrong Problem, March 1, 2010, page 3

Colorado Republican primary voters are doing their homework on the candidates this primary cycle, and anyone that has a history of increasing government spending or supporting Referendum C have a lot of explaining to do, and that is what Jane Norton has been doing, a lot of posturing and explaining. I wonder if Pat Toomey asked her what it feels like to increase government spending by billions of dollars, and even worse, kill a rebate that kept $3.2 BILLION dollars in the hands of taxpayers and away from the government.

Maybe that is why taxpayer champion Sen. Jim DeMint endorsed Ken Buck, Marco Rubio and Pat Toomey for the US Senate, and not Jane Norton.

Great AAPOR Session on Public Survey Transparency and Data Disclosure

At tonight’s AAPOR dinner in Chicago there was a great panel that included Mark Blumenthal of Pollster.com, and Gary Langer of ABC News. The discussion was about what information should be included in publicly released survey data. Langer pointed out his standards of evaluating publicly released survey data and made the point that coverage, especially cell phone coverage, in a survey is very important to him. Since Magellan releases election survey data to the public from time to time I was very interested in what they both considered relevant and useful to them in evaluating whether or not a survey is valid, and if the data is presented fairly. AAPOR is working on new standards that they hope members and non members will adhere to in the future. More to come over the next few days……….

Blogging from American Assoc of Public Opinion Research Conference in Chicago

I am in Chicago with my project managers Mallory Reid and Courtney Gibbon. We are very excited to sit in on a bunch of great presentations and seminars through Sunday and will be sharing the best of the best with you over the next few days. We are particularly interested in hearing reports about the increase in cell phone only households, changing attitudes and the intensity of public opinion, as well as sample and survey methodology studies. This stuff may be somewhat dry for the average person but to a researcher this is one of the best annual conventions to attend and learn from the research industry’s best minds. Stay tuned!!

Redistricting Plans Submitted by Public Could Happen in 2011

I just returned from the RNC Redistricting Conference held last week in DC and there were several questions about publicly submitted redistricting plans in 2011. With the advancement of redistricting desktop software, this is a very real possibility. In past redistricting cycles that I have been involved with, it was very unlikely that a public entity or group of voters would take the time to submit a redistricting plan to a state legislature or redistricting commission. For about $7,500 anyone can purchase redistricting software with census data from Caliper Corporation (Maptitiude) or Citygate GIS (Autobound).

Both software packages are relatively easy to use, and it is possible that pressure could be put on the Democrat or Republican Party to adhere to the “public will” for a particular plan as long as it does not violate redistricting laws such as compactness, district deviation, and minority retrogression. There will also be a high probability that web based drawing could be made available to the public. Redistricting is not very far off, and after the 2010 election cycle it will be a very hot topic for political junkies. Serious public participation in the redistricting process could lead to real “change”.

What will we see from the 18 to 34 voter demographic this November?

Accurately weighting political survey response data by age group, region, gender, party (if applicable) and race (if applicable) is the ”special sauce” of a reliable survey. Researchers use a myriad of data sources to determine the proper weighting formula including prior election exit polls or voter files. I personally use voter file data to determine my demographic quotas across several past election cycles, and rarely do age group demographics change by more than 4 or 5 points for a general election.

The 2008 general election was the exception, with the 18 to 34 age group increasingby 10 points from prior election cycles. These voters were overwhelmingly Democrat, Independent and first time voters. Theirincrease in overall contribution to the total vote decreased the 65 and older contribution by 5 to 8 points. Politically the result was a strong year for Democrat candidates. The increase by 10 points among this age demographics occurred in states across the country including Kentucky, Pennsylvania, Colorado, and Illinois. Looking ahead to the 2010 election the big question is if these younger voters will be motivated to show up. If their vote contribution reverts to their traditional 8% to 15% overall contribution it could make for a very bad day for Democrat candidates up and down the ticket.

First British Prime Minister Televised Debate Today at 3:30 EST on CSPAN3

If you are as much of a political junkie as I am, this is exciting stuff. For the first time ever, voters of Great Britain will be treated to a televised debate between British Prime Minister and Labour Party Leader Gordon Brown, Conservative Party Leader David Cameron, and Liberal Democrat Leader Nick Clegg. The latest public opinion surveys have the Conservative Party slightly ahead of the incumbent Labour Party, a significant change from 6 months ago when the Conservatives held a much larger lead. The debate will be carried live on CSPAN3, or you can watch streaming video on CSPAN’s website at www.c-span.org. Should be great stuff!

The debate will be carried live on CSPAN3 at 3:30 eastern.

Jane Norton Struggles Connecting with the GOP Base in Colorado

Don’t be fooled by Jane Norton’s claim that she is opting out of the GOP state assembly to counter Sen. Michael Bennet’s efforts to petition onto the Democrat primary ballot. The fact is she has been unable to convince the Republican base that she is the real deal over the past three months. At Republican Lincoln Day county dinners across the state she has been receiving a polite golf clap after her remarks, while her opponent Ken Buck has been bringing people to their feet. This primary season the Republican base is looking for a candidate with conviction, backbone, and grit. Jane has been unable to convince the base that she has those qualities. Her message of “Stand Up Colorado” is simply not working, and the GOP state assembly on May 22nd is now going to be a huge day for the Buck Campaign. Momentum is building behind Ken Buck, and the endorsement of South Carolina Senator Jim DeMint today adds credibility that Ken Buck is the right choice for Colorado conservatives and Republicans in the August primary.

Hiring Election Data Professionals is Imperative for a Successful “Absentee Chase” Program in 2010

More voters are choosing to cast their ballots during early voting periods and by absentee mail, especially in high growth southwestern states. In the 2008 general election roughly 50% of the overall votes cast were absentee and 12% during the early voting period. In Arizona and New Mexico early voting is on the rise. These ”method of voting” trends decrease the importance and effectiveness of 72 hour GOTV programs. Campaigns, party organizations and Victory programs that understand these trends and invest in experienced election data management professionals will be able to run more effective GOTV programs.

Depending on the availability of voter absentee request data, a campaign can know ahead of time who is going to receive and absentee ballot in the mail. This is a gift to campaigns because voters who have requested an absentee ballot are very likely to vote. This information allows a campaign to be much more effective in communicating their message to likely voters. It also allows a campaign to remove individuals from a target list and thus save time, money and human resources contacting that voter.

Magellan Data and Mapping Strategies handled the data collection for the Colorado Victory during the 2008 general election. Our team converted the raw data from the Colorado Secretary of State on a daily basis, flagged voters that had returned their ballot, and provided daily reports by county, Congressional District, legislative district and party. This allowed every Republican stakeholder in the election to know exactly how many individuals had returned their ballots, and how many had not by party. This information allowed Victory to adjust phone and door to door efforts in real time. If the Republican Party is going to be successful in 2010 turning out the vote it will need to invest in experienced campaign data professionals.

Examples of Magellan’s 2008 Daily “Absentee-Chase” Reports are Below

CO Abs Requests, Returns, Early Voting and Total Vote Count by State Senate District as of October 26, 2008

CO Abs Requests, Returns, Early Voting and Total Vote Count by State House District as of October 26, 2008

CO Abs Requests, Returns, Early Voting and Total Vote Count by County as of October 26, 2008

CO Abs Requests, Returns, Early Voting and Total Vote Count by CD as of October 26, 2008

Use Data for Effective Voter Registration Drives

During the 2008 election cycle the Democrat Party, progressive leaning organizations, and the Obama Campaign executed a voter registration drive in the perfect environment. They capitalized, with nearly unlimited funding, on the strongest anti-Republican mood since Watergate and ensured a strong showing at the polls for Democrat candidates. Although it is still early in 2010 election cycle, there are strong indications that voters are uncomfortable with the Democrat’s agenda. Without question, this is a year where voter registration drives will significantly add to Republicans to voter rolls across the country. This is opportunity that should not be passed up by the Republican Party but to maximize on this environment data must be integrated into the plan.

Voter registration strategies in the past have not integrated individual data components or sophisticated targeting. Time, money and human resources are wasted by sending volunteers to their local supermarket to stand there with a clipboard and ask strangers to register to vote. This method will generate newly registered voters, but if you want to sign up new voters of a particular party affiliation, you could end up making very little progress despite the political environment.

Magellan suggests a more data driven and targeted approach using consumer data to identify individuals who are not registered to vote. The first step in the process involves matching consumer data against voter registration lists to identify who is not registered to vote. After compiling a list of non-registrants, the file can then be geocoded to determine what precinct they live in. The precincts are then ranked on past Republican candidate performance and a determination is made that voter registration efforts will only be attempted in precincts where Republican candidates (McCain, popular statewide GOP candidate percentage) performed at 60% or better. The non-registrants in the targeted precincts are then mailed voter registration information, preceded with an automated phone contact notifying the household to look for the mail piece. Finally, depending on volunteer resources, a door to door contact is attempted. The beauty of this voter registration program is results can be measured by collecting the county voter file before and after the program is implemented, actual individuals are targeted, and there is significant time, money and human resources wasted.

If the Republican Party is going to maximize gains in this year’s political environment, it must begin doing things smarter, more targeted and most of all integrating data into every decsion made. Of course, Magellan Data and Mapping Strategies can provide all of the data components required to execute a data driven voter registration program.

Modeled Donor Records Increases Fundraising ROI

The art of successful fundraising has many ingredients, including how well a fundraising letter is written, the emotional appeal of the letter, who is signing the letter, and most importantly the donor list to mailed. Response rates and return on investment (ROI) is largely driven by the quality of the donor list. Magellan provides high quality exclusive donor lists that are generated from our unique donor modeling process. Our donor records are enhanced with both consumer and survey data so our clients are prospecting among names that are not found in other house files. There many different factors that a successful direct mail fundraising campaign, but a quality donor list is the most important ingredient.

RNC National Redistricting Map for Download

The RNC Redistricting Department has an excellent map that provides information on everything you need to know about the national landscape. You can download a PDF of the map from the RNC website at http://bit.ly/btFpIb or you can download it from the Magellan website RNC Redistricting National Wallmap as of 032910.

Enhance Your Database With Magellan’s Services

Everyday businesses, industry associations, political organizations and campaigns come to the realization that their efforts would be more effective by enhancing their databases. While the goals of these different entities vary, the need to enhance data is the same. Magellan provides several enhancement services including phone numbers, political geography (CD, SD, LD), county coding, zip codes, and emails. Our political geography appending processing passes records through a two step process using geocoding and GIS technology. Magellan also standardizes addresses to USPS standards and NCOA processing to identify individuals that have moved. Investing in regular data enhancement saves money maintians and maintains high efficiency standards in your contact and grassroots efforts.

How Data Modeling Can Help Your Campaign

Data modeling allows campaigns to build support among a universe of voters that would not be targeted using traditional methods. Modeling can sigfnificantly increase fundraising and development efforts by prospecting from a list of donor and non-donor records that have been modeled. Magellan provides data modeling services to campaigns and organizations to meet these needs. Our modeling methodology begins with a survey of 1,800 to 2,500 individuals that is designed to segment and separate sub groups of voters on issue preferences. We then process the survey data through predictive analytic software which returns confidence levels of predicting opinion preferences of individuals. The final step of the Magellan modeling process ”clusters” sub groups of individuals together producing a final list. Modeling can help you be more efficient and boost your ROI for donor prospecting or building support behind a candidate or organization.

Voter Registration Data Drives Everything

The most vital asset to any political campaign or organization is the voter registration database. If your voter file is old or out of date, then your voter contact efforts will be less effective and you will end up wasting time and money. Magellan Data and Mapping Strategies maintains a national voter registration database of 177 million records in 44 states. Our database contains 55 million phone numbers. We are constantly updating our files so that our clients have the most current and accurate voter registration data possible. All of our voter files are processed through the United States Postal Service’s National Change of Address (NCOA) database, which is updated every 60 days. The information we derive from our voter files for clients determine message strategy, voter contact efforts, survey demographic quotas, budgets, and voter targeting universes. If your voter file is out of date, then you are already putting yourself at a disadvantage. Investing in a current, enhanced voter file is the smartest decision a winning campaign can make.

Is Your Political Data Ready for Redistricting 2011?

One year from now, the US Census Bureau will be releasing population data from the 2010 Census. In state capitols across the country, legislative staff, redistricting consultants and Republican stakeholders will be importing those data into their redistricting software systems. That is the easy part. The hard part is compiling the political data that will be de-allocated and matched to the 2010 Census data. Without political data, redistricting professionals will draw redistricting plans based solely upon population, race, and ethnicity data.

In certain states, Republicans will rely upon state legislative staff or an academic entity to compile the political data, but the vast majority will need someone to properly collect, compile and match precinct election return data from election cycles from 2001 to 2010. This process is one of the services that Magellan has vast experience in. Magellan Partners, David Flaherty and John Diez, have constructed political redistricting databases for more than 15 years. As you plan for the the 2010 redistricting cycle and do not have a redistricting data professional already on board, feel free to give us a call or visit our redistricting page.

Automated Survey Research is a “No Brainer”

Across the country, thousands of Republican candidates at the federal, state and local level are making tough decisions about how to spend limited financial resources. Many candidates, especially primary candidates, will make budget and message decisions without survey research. Due to the lack of survey research, they will guess what the right message should be for their campaign, drop mail, and maybe do a radio or cable spot. Many will deliver and ineffective message that does not resonate with voters and they will lose on election day. They will lose because they believed the cost of survey research was $7,000 to $10,000 and they simply could not afford it.

Magellan Strategies offers automated survey research services as a reliable, cost effective solution. For $1,600 we offer a 15 question, 600 to 800N survey. For this service, you will receive topline and crosstab results, and a full slide presentation. The survey will provide enough interviews to make reliable assumptions about vital voter subgroups. Many people are skeptical of automated survey research. They believe the dog is answering the phone. The fact is, survey methodologies vary from polling firm to polling firm. Magellan’s survey methodology includes using samples from a list of registered voters and weighting survey results that are indicative of past voter turnout demographics. For $1,600 Magellan’s automated survey research services are a “no brainer”.

RNC Redistricting Conference 2010

The Republican National Committee will be hosting a redistricting conference April 29th through May 1st in Washington DC. David Flaherty and John Diez of Magellan will be attending, as speakers, as well as meeting Republican staff to discuss their redistricting data plans to date. If you are going to be involved in the redistricting cycle in 2011 on the Republican side, this is a conference you should not miss. Get more information and register for the conference.

Welcome to our new website…

We are excited to launch our new website on St. Patrick’s Day. This new format will allow people to learn more about Magellan’s services including survey research, voter registration databases, donor databases, modeling, redistricting, and data enhancement. Clients and prospective customers will also have a link to follow our company on Facebook and Twitter. Thank you for visiting, and as always, do not hesitate to contact us about our products and services.

David Flaherty
Chief Executive Officer
Magellan Data and Mapping Strategies

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