Arizona General Election Survey (5/3/12)

Louisville, CO – Magellan Strategies today released the results of an automated survey of 909 likely Arizona general election voters.  The survey was commissioned by Arizona political consulting firm DC London, Inc.  The survey was fielded on April 30th, May 1st, and May 2nd, and has a margin of error of 3.25% at the 95 percent confidence interval.  The survey measures voter opinion among a wide array of issues and election contests, including the Presidential and US Senate match-ups.

The media has indicated recently that Arizona is in play for the 2012 Presidential election.  In the 2008 election President Obama won 45% of the vote to John McCain’s 54%, a margin of 9%.  This survey finds a similar spread among likely 2012 general election voters in Arizona, with 52% supporting Mitt Romney, 43% supporting Barack Obama and 5% responding undecided.

Download Survey Press Release, Topline and Crosstab Results Below

Magellan Arizona General Election Survey Press Release 050312

Magellan Arizona General Election Survey Crosstabs Release 050312

 

Nebraska US Senate General Election Survey (1/15/12)

Louisville, CO – Magellan Strategies today released the results of an automated survey of 675 likely Nebraska general election voters.  The survey was fielded on January 10th and 11th, and has a margin of error of 3.77% at the 95 percent confidence interval.  The survey looks at the strength of former Democrat Senator Bob Kerrey in ballot tests with Attorney General Jon Bruning and Treasurer Don Stenberg.  The survey also includes ballot tests of potential Democrat candidates State Representative Steve Lathrop, and former Lt. Governor Kim Robak.

Bob Kerrey’s high water mark of support is 40% in ballot tests that include Jon Bruning and Don Stenberg.  Among all respondents, 43% have a favorable opinion of Bob Kerrey, 43% have an unfavorable opinion of him, and 11% have no opinion.  At this time, regardless of who Bob Kerrey runs against, he trails both Republican candidates.

Download survey press release, toplines, crosstabs, and presentation below:

Nebraska US Senate Survey Press Release 011512

Nebraska US Senate General Election Survey Topline Results 011512

Nebraska US Senate General Election Survey Crosstabs 011512

Nebraska US Senate General Election Survey Presentation 011512

 

New Hampshire 2012 Republican Presidential Primary Survey (1/2/12)

Magellan Strategies and NHJournal.com today released the results of a New Hampshire automated voice recorded survey of 648 likely Republican primary voters, and independent voters that are likely to vote in the Republican Presidential primary.  The survey was commissioned by NHJournal.com.  The survey finds Mitt Romney well ahead of all challengers, with a 19 point lead on Ron Paul, 40% to 19% respectively, and a 28 point lead on the rest of the field, 40% to 12% respectively.  New Hampshire is setting up to be a big momentum state for the Romney Campaign on January 10th.  New Hampshire primary voters in the past have produced some surprise winners but currently that does not appear to be the case in 2012.

Download survey press release, toplines, crosstabs and presentation below.

NH 2012 GOP Presidential Primary Survey Press Release 123011

NH 2012 GOP Presidential Primary Survey Topline Results 123011

NH 2012 GOP Presidential Primary Survey Crosstabs 123011

NH 2012 Republican Presidential Primary Survey Presentation 123011

Nebraska 2012 US Senate General Election Survey (11/28/11)

Magellan Strategies today released the results of an automated survey of 645 likely 2012 Nebraska general election voters fielded on November 20th and 21st.  The survey measured image ratings and ballot tests of incumbent Democrat Senator Ben Nelson, and Republican candidates Jon Bruning, Don Stenberg, and Deb Fischer.  The survey also included Republican Governor Dave Heineman, although he announced in November of 2010 that he would not be a candidate for the US Senate in 2012.

Among the three announced Republican candidates tested in the survey, Attorney General Jon Bruning is currently the strongest candidate to face Ben Nelson, with 45% supporting Jon Bruning and 39% supporting Ben Nelson, and 16% of respondents undecided.   The Nelson-Stenberg ballot test is a statistical tie, with Don Stenberg leading Ben Nelson by one point, 41% to 40% respectively.  Ben Nelson leads State Senator Deb Fischer by 6 points, 41% to 35% respectively.

The strongest Republican candidate that is not in the US Senate race is Governor Dave Heineman.  In this hypothetical matchup the survey finds Dave Heineman leading Ben Nelson by 18 points, 51% to 33% respectively.   Dave Heineman is the only Republican candidate tested that wins a plurality of independent voters.

Download survey press release, toplines, crosstabs and presentation below.

NE 2012 US Senate General Election Survey Press Release 112811

NE 2012 US Senate General Election Survey Topline Results 112811

NE 2012 US Senate General Election Survey Crosstabs 112811

NE 2012 US Senate General Election Survey Presentation 112811

New Hampshire 2012 Republican Presidential Primary Survey (11/18/11)

Magellan Strategies and NHJournal.com today released the results of a New Hampshire landline autodial survey of 746 likely Republican primary voters, and independent voters that are likely to vote in the 2012 Republican Presidential primary.  The survey was commissioned by NHJournal.com.

The survey finds the New Hampshire Republican Presidential primary becoming competitive with Mitt Romney leading Newt Gingrich 29% to 27%, respectively.  The strongest “Mitt-alternative” candidates in New Hampshire so far have been Rick Perry in August (18% support) and Herman Cain in October (20% support).  Now we find Newt Gingrich breaking the 20% ceiling with 27% support. With seven weeks remaining before the New Hampshire primary, political observers will be closely watching to see if Newt Gingrich can keep the race competitive.

Download survey press release, toplines, crosstabs and presentation below.

New Hampshire 2012 GOP Presidential Primary Survey Release 111811

New Hampshire 2012 GOP Presidential Primary Survey Topline Results 111811

New Hampshire 2012 GOP Presidential Primary Survey Crosstab Results 111811

New Hampshire 2012 GOP Presidential Primary Survey Presentation 111811

Arizona 2012 US Senate Republican Primary Survey (11/16/11)

Magellan Strategies today released the results of an automated landline phone survey of 722 likely 2012 Arizona Republican primary voters and independent voters that intend to vote in the Republican primary. At this early stage in the primary election, Congressman Jeff Flake leads likely challengers by 44 points with 52%, and 31% responding they definitely intend to vote for him. The generic “some other candidate” has 8%, businessman Will Cardon has 4%, and radio host Clair Van Steenwyk has 2%. Businessman Doug McKee and former Youngstown Mayor Bryan Hackbarth have 1% and 32% responded as undecided.

Download survey press release, toplines, crosstabs and presentation below.

AZ 2012 US Senate Republican Primary Election Survey Press Release 111611

AZ 2012 US Senate Republican Primary Election Survey Topline Results 111611

AZ 2012 US Senate Republican Primary Election Survey Crosstabs 111611

AZ 2012 US Senate Republican Primary Election Survey Presentation 111611

Ohio Issue 2 and Issue 3 Post General Election Survey (11/16/11)

Louisville, CO – Magellan Strategies today released the results of an automated landline phone survey of 623 Ohio voters that participated in the 2011 general election. Last Tuesday’s ballot issues in Ohio presented voters with an opportunity to voice their opinions on two issues that will likely be at the forefront of the 2012 election cycle: limiting the collective bargaining rights of state employee unions and Obamacare. Sixty one percent of voters supported the repeal of Senate Bill 5, and 66% supported a constitutional amendment that allows Ohioans to “opt -out” of the new federal health care reform law.

What do these results mean for President Obama’s chances of holding Ohio in 2012? Were the Issue 2 NO voters and Issue 3 YES voters intending to send a message to the President in support or opposition of these policy issues? The Issue 2 and Issue 3 results mean that Ohio will remain a toss-up state in the 2012 Presidential election. The survey finds Democrat and Republican core constituencies’ crossing over and voting for issues that political observers would not expect to see. Among respondents that voted NO on Issue 2, 37% voted YES on Issue 3, and 39% of Issue 3 YES respondents voted NO on Issue 2.

Was the Issue 2 victory a resounding message of support for President Obama? Not necessarily, with only 29% of Issue 2 NO voters responding that President Obama’s involvement was either extremely or very important when making their decision to vote NO on Issue 2. It appears repealing Senate Bill 5 was more about rejecting a law that 61% of Ohioans disagreed with, and less about the President.

In comparison, among Issue 3 YES voters, 44% responded that President Obama’s involvement in the new federal health care law was either extremely or very important when making their decision. Ohio still remains a battleground in the 2012 Presidential election, and both the Obama Campaign and the Republican nominee will be fighting hard to win the state. It is very important to note that the survey results are among voters that voted in the 2011 general election, not likely 2012 general election voters.

Download survey press release, toplines, crosstabs and presentation below.

Ohio 2011 Post General Election Survey Press Release 111611

Ohio 2011 Post General Election Survey Topline Results 111511

Ohio 2011 Post General Election Survey Crosstabs 111511

Ohio 2011 Post General Election Survey Presentation 111511

Nevada 2012 Republican Presidential Caucus Survey (10/24/11)

Louisville, CO – Magellan Strategies today released the results of an autodial survey of 673 likely Nevada Republican Presidential caucus goers. The survey finds Mitt Romney leading Herman Cain by 12 points, 38% to 26% respectively, and Newt Gingrich third with 16%. The rest of the field shows Ron Paul with 7%, Rick Perry with 5%, Michele Bachmann with 2%, Rick Santorum with 1%, Jon Huntsman with 1%, and “some other candidate” with 1%. Three percent of respondents are undecided.

Since our last survey at the end of August, Mitt Romney has increased his overall support by 14 points from 24% to 38%. Looking at the ballot test by voter subgroup, we find Mitt Romney with very large margins among women (+22), seniors (+18), and not surprisingly Mormon voters (+67). Among all respondents, 16% identified themselves as Mormon. The race is much tighter among male voters (Romney +2), self-identified Tea Party members (Romney -2) and voters that did not vote in the 2008 Nevada GOP Presidential Caucus (Romney -1). We consider the latter two populations “Sharon Angle” voters, and if Mitt Romney can remain competitive among these two groups he will be in a strong position to win.

Download survey press release, toplines, crosstabs and presentation below.

NV 2012 Republican Presidential Caucus Survey Release 102411

NV 2012 Republican Presidential Caucus Survey Topline Results 102411

NV 2012 Republican Presidential Caucus Survey Crosstabs 102411

NV 2012 Republican Presidential Caucus Survey Presentation 102411


 

New Hampshire 2012 Republican Presidential Primary Survey (10/14/11)

Magellan Strategies and NHJournal.com today released the results of a New Hampshire landline autodial survey of 736 likely Republican primary voters, and independent voters that are likely to vote in the 2012 Republican Presidential primary.  The survey was commissioned by NHJournal.com.  

Since our last survey in mid-August the Republican Presidential field has had the opportunity to introduce themselves to voters in five televised debates and spend time campaigning in New Hampshire.  The ballot test has changed in the past two months, with positive movement among primary voters for Herman Cain (+17%) and moderate movement for Mitt Romney (+5%).  Incremental positive movement is also evident for Jon Huntsman (+3%) and Newt Gingrich (+4%).  Candidates that have lost support include Rick Perry (-16%), Michele Bachmann (-6%), and Ron Paul (-4%).

Download survey release, toplines and crosstabs below.

Magellan New Hampshire 2012 GOP Presidential Primary Survey Release 101411

New Hampshire 2012 GOP Presidential Primary Survey Topline Results 101411

New Hampshire 2012 GOP Presidential Primary Survey Crosstabs 101411

Pennsylvania 2012 General Election Survey (9/19/11)

Magellan Strategies today released the results of an autodial survey of 702 likely 2012 Pennsylvania general election voters. 

The survey finds Barack Obama comfortably leading potential Republican challengers Mitt Romney by 10 points (50% to 40%) and Rick Perry by 15 points (52% to 37%).  The President has solid support among voters that overwhelmingly backed him in 2008, including women, voters aged 18 to 34, and self-described moderate voters.  It is clear from this survey that those key voting subgroups are still very much with him.  Despite this good news for Barack Obama, the mood of these voters is pessimistic, with 62% of women, 64% of self-described moderates, and 54% of voters 18 to 34 feeling things in the country are on the wrong track.  It remains to be seen if the eventual Republican nominee can appeal to these voters after the primary.    

With that said, it should be noted that Pennsylvania is very tough ground for any Republican Presidential candidate, with statewide voter registration at 51% Democrat, 37% Republican and 12% independent/other.  Although Pennsylvania has elected many Republican candidates to statewide office, the last time a Republican Presidential candidate carried the state was in 1988.                 

Download survey release, toplines, crosstabs, and presentation below

Pennsylvania 2012 General Election Survey Release 091911

Pennsylvania 2012 General Election Survey Topline Results 091911

Pennsylvania 2012 General Election Survey Crosstabs 091911

Pennsylvania 2012 General Election Survey Presentation 091911 

North Carolina 2012 General Election Survey (9/12/11)

CORRECTION TO CROSSTABS AS OF 4:42EST, SEPTEMBER 12TH , 2011

Our initial set of crosstabs this morning contained an error in the “Other” column under the ”RACE” tabs.  The initial set of crosstabs showed the same number of BLACK respondents (194), in the OTHER column within the RACE category.  This errror has been corrected, and the tabs now show  the correct number of OTHER respondents as 18.  THIS ERROR CORRECTION DOES NOT CHANGE THE RESPONSE PERCENTAGES FOR ANY QUESTION IN THE SURVEY.  The error only reflected an incorrect number of respondents for “other” responses within the race category.  Any further questions regarding this error should be directed to David Flaherty at 303-861-8585 or dflaherty@magellanstrategies.com.   

Magellan Strategies today released the results of an autodial survey of 923 likely 2012 North Carolina general election voters.  The survey finds likely 2012 North Carolina voters in a very pessimistic mood, with 70% thinking the country is off on the wrong track, and only 23% thinking things are headed in the right direction.  Independent voters feel slightly worse than all respondents, with only 13% believing that things are headed in the right direction.

The Obama-Romney ballot test finds Barack Obama leading Mitt Romney by 2 points, 45% to 43% respectively, a statistical tie.  Looking at the results by major voter subgroup, we see Barack Obama doing well among female voters and very well among African-American voters.  Mitt Romney is doing well among seniors, independents, voters aged 18 to 34, and white voters.

The Obama-Perry ballot test finds Barack Obama leading Rick Perry by 5 points, with 48% of respondents supporting the President, and 43% supporting Rick Perry.    

The Perdue-McCrory ballot test finds Pat McCrory leading Governor Perdue by 1 point, a statistical tie, with 44% of respondents supporting Pat McCrory, and 43%, supporting Beverly Perdue.  Pat McCrory is doing well among independents, voters aged 18-34 and white voters, and Beverly Perdue does well among African American voters.

Download survey release, toplines, crosstabs, and presentation below

North Carolina 2012 General Election Survey Release 091211

North Carolina 2012 General Election Survey Topline Results 091211

North Carolina 2012 General Election Survey Crosstabs 091211

North Carolina 2012 General Election Survey Presentation 091211 

 

New York 9th Congressional District Special Election Survey (9/6/11)

Baton Rouge, LA – Magellan Strategies BR today released the survey results of an automated survey of 2,055 likely voters in New York’s 9th Congressional District.  The survey was conducted September 1st, 2011 and has a margin of error of 2.16%.

The survey finds Republican Bob Turner leading Democrat David Weprin by 4 points (Turner 44.6%/Weprin 40.4%/Hoeppner 3.2%/undecided 11.8%).  Ballot intensity benefits Turner with 35.8% of the respondents definitely voting for Turner while only 28.3% of respondents definitely voting for Weprin. 

Both candidates have comparable name recognition (Turner 89% name recognition/Weprin 88% name recognition).   However, Turner’s image is 37% favorable to 23.8% unfavorable, while Weprin’s image is 29.8% favorable to 34.5% unfavorable.     

Turner leads Weprin despite the fact that Democrats have almost a 5 point lead on the generic ballot.   However, President Obama’s job approval suffers (36% approve/52% disapprove/13% no opinion).

Download survey press release, toplines and crosstabs below.

Magellan BR NY-CD09 Survey Press Release 090611

Magellan BR NY-CD09 Survey Topline Results 090611

Magellan BR NY-CD09 Survey Crosstabs 090611

Nevada 2012 Republican Presidential Caucus Survey (9/2/11)

Magellan Strategies today released the results of an autodial survey of 631 likely 2012 Nevada Republican Presidential caucus attendees.  The survey finds Rick Perry leading Mitt Romney by 5 points.  Among all voters, Rick Perry has 29% support and Mitt Romney has 24% support.  The rest of the Republican field rounds out with Herman Cain with 7%, Michele Bachmann with 6%,  Ron Paul with 6%, Newt Gingrich with 5%, Rick Santorum and Jon Huntsman with 1% each, the generic “other candidate” with 2%, and 19% are undecided.

Download survey release, toplines, crosstabs and presentation below.

Nevada 2012 Republican Presidential Caucus Survey Release 090211

Nevada 2012 Republican Presidential Caucus Survey Topline Results 090111

Nevada 2012 Republican Presidential Caucus Survey Crosstabs 090111

Nevada 2012 Republican Presidential Caucus Survey Presentation 090111


 

South Carolina 2012 Republican Presidential Primary Survey (8/26/11)

Magellan Strategies today released the results of an autodial survey of 637 likely 2012 Republican primary voters in South Carolina.  The survey finds Rick Perry leading Mitt Romney by 11 points.  Among all voters, Rick Perry has 31%, Mitt Romney has 20%, and Michele Bachmann is third with 14%.  The rest of the Republican field rounds out with Herman Cain with 9%, Newt Gingrich with 5%, Ron Paul and the “Other Candidate” with 4%, Rick Santorum and Jon Huntsman with 2%, and 9% undecided.

Download survey press release, toplines, crosstabs and presentation below.

South Carolina 2012 GOP Presidential Primary Survey Release 082611

South Carolina 2012 GOP Presidential Primary Survey Topline Results 082611

South Carolina 2012 GOP Presidential Primary Survey Crosstabs 082611

South Carolina 2012 GOP Presidential Primary Survey Presentation 082611

 

 

Iowa 2012 Republican Presidential Caucus Survey (8/25/11)

Magellan Strategies today released the results of an autodial survey of 676 likely 2012 Iowa Republican Presidential Caucus voters.  The survey finds Rick Perry leading Michele Bachmann by 2 points, a statistical tie.  Among all voters, Rick Perry has 24%, Michele Bachmann has 22% and Mitt Romney is a close third with 19%.  The rest of the Republican field rounds out with Ron Paul with 9%, Herman Cain with 6%, Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich with 4%, “Other Candidate” with 3%, Jon Huntsman with 1%, and 8% undecided.

Download survey press release, toplines, crosstabs and presentation below.

Iowa 2012 Republican Presidential Caucus Survey Release 082511

Iowa 2012 Presidential Republican Caucus Survey Topline Results 082511

Iowa 2012 Republican Presidential Caucus Survey Crosstabs 082511

Iowa 2012 Republican Presidential Caucus Survey Presentation 082511

 

Florida 2012 General Election Survey (8/23/11)

Magellan Data and Mapping Strategies today released the results of an autodial survey of 723 likely 2012 general election voters in Florida, fielded August 16th, 17th and 18th.  This survey finds an electorate in a sour mood with only 20% of respondents thinking things in the country are headed in the right direction, and 72% thinking things are off on the wrong track.  These numbers should be alarming for all incumbents, regardless of party.

Barack Obama and his team have a lot of work to do with Florida voters to hold on to the state’s 29 electoral votes in 2012.  The survey asked three questions to measure voter opinion of the President, including image rating, job approval and re-elect rating.  The findings of all three questions show the President in “net-negative” territory among all voters and key voter subgroup constituencies. 

This survey tested the image ratings of three Republican Presidential candidates, Mitt Romney, Michele Bachmann and Rick Perry.  None of the three Republican Presidential candidates have strong image ratings at this time.  Among all respondents, 38% have a favorable opinion of Mitt Romney and 40% have an unfavorable opinion, and 20% have heard of Mitt Romney but do not have an opinion of him.  Rick Perry’s image rating shows 33% having a favorable opinion of him, 30% having an unfavorable opinion, and 28% having heard of him but do not have an opinion of him.  Michele Bachmann’s image rating is upside down by 10 points, with 33% having a favorable opinion of her, 43% having an unfavorable opinion, and 19% having heard of her but do not have an opinion.  

Download survey press release, toplines, crosstabs and presentation below.

Magellan Florida 2012 General Election Survey Release 082311

Magellan Florida 2012 General Election Survey Topline Results 082311

Magellan Florida 2012 General Election Survey Crosstabs 082311

Magellan Florida 2012 General Election Survey Presentation 082311

 

New Hampshire 2012 Republican Presidential Primary Survey (8/17/11)

Magellan Data and Mapping Strategies and NHJournal.com today released a New Hampshire autodial survey of 613 likely Republican primary voters, and independent voters that are likely to vote in the 2012 Republican Presidential primary.  The survey finds Mitt Romney maintaining a solid 18 point lead in New Hampshire with 36% support, followed by Rick Perry with 18%, and Ron Paul with 14%.   Michele Bachmann rounds out the top tier with 10% support.

Download survey press release, toplines, crosstabs and presentation below.

NH 2012 GOP Presidential Primary Survey Release 081811

NH 2012 Republican Primary Survey Crosstabs 081711

NH 2012 Republican Primary Survey Topline Results 081711

NH 2012 Republican Primary Survey Presentation 081711

 

Wisconsin Senate District 18 Recall Election Survey (8/5/11)

Magellan Strategies Baton Rouge today released the survey results of an autodial survey of 1,433 voters in Wisconsin Senate District 18. The survey was conducted August 4, 2011.

The survey finds the race statistically tied. Republican Randy Hopper is currently polling 47.5%, while Democrat Jessica King is polling 50%. The electorate is extremely polarized.  Of the 47.5% Hopper is polling, 46.1% is definitely supporting Hopper and of the 50% King is polling, 48.1% is definitely supporting King.

Download survey press release and toplines below.

WI Senate District 18 Recall Election Survey Release 080511

Montana 2012 Governor Republican Primary Survey (7/28/11)

Magellan Data and Mapping Strategies today released the results of an autodial survey of 676 likely 2012 Montana Republican primary voters.  The survey finds former two term Congressman Rick Hill with 24%, former State Senator Ken Miller with 13%, former State Senator Corey Stapleton with 5%, businessman Neil Livingstone with 3%, and Chouteau County Commissioner Jim O’Hara with 3%, and 52% undecided. Among senior voters (65 or older), which we project to be 37% of the total primary vote, Rick Hill leads Ken Miller by 11 points, 26% to 15%.  It is no surprise that half, 52%, of respondents are undecided at this very early stage of the campaign.

Download survey press release, toplines, crosstabs and presentation below.

 MT 2012 Republican Governor Primary Survey Press Release 072811

MT 2012 Republican Governor Primary Survey Topline Results 072811

MT 2012 Republican Governor Primary Survey Crosstabs 072811

MT 2012 Republican Governor Primary Survey Presentation 072911

New Mexico 2012 US Senate Democrat Primary Survey (7/19/11)

Magellan Data and Mapping Strategies today released the results of an autodial survey of 636 likely 2012 New Mexico Democrat primary voters.  This is our first look at the Democrat primary field in New Mexico.  The ballot test shows Congressman Martin Heinrich with 52% support, State Auditor Hector Balderas with 19%, Andres Valdez with 4% and 25% of voters are undecided.  Among Hispanic voters that contribute 43% of all respondents, Martin Heinrich leads Hector Balderas 45% to 27%, with 24% undecided.    The political ideology of the respondents was 17% conservative, 45% moderate and 30% liberal.  Within those voter subgroups we find Hector Balderas doing better among conservative Democrats and Martin Heinrich doing well among liberal Democrats.

Download survey release, toplines, crosstabs and presentation below.

NM 2012 US Senate Democrat Primary Survey Release 071911

NM 2012 US Senate Democrat Primary Survey Topline Results 071811

NM 2012 US Senate Democrat Primary Survey Crosstabs 071811

NM 2012 US Senate Democrat Primary Survey Presentation 071811

New Mexico 2012 US Senate Republican Primary Survey (7/19/11)

Magellan Data and Mapping Strategies today released the results of an autodial survey of 799 likely 2012 New Mexico Republican primary voters.  The current ballot test shows Heather Wilson leading by 35 points with 56% support followed by Lt. Governor John Sanchez with 21%, Greg Sowards with 5%, and Bill English with 2% with 15% undecided.  Heather Wilson has dropped 3% since our poll in late April when she had 59% of support, but she still maintains a significant lead over the rest of the field.  Among the 47% of respondents that are self-described Tea Party voters Heather Wilson leads by 29 points, and among conservative voters she leads by 29 points.  Among moderate voters, she leads by a whopping 60 points.  Among all respondents 78% identified themselves as conservative in their political views and 19% percent as moderate. 

It should be noted that it is still very early in this race, and the candidates are raising money, building support and not spending significant dollars on getting their message out.  It should also be noted that our last survey in April John Sanchez had not formally entered the race.  Since announcing his candidacy he has improved by 4 points from 17% to 21% support.  Greg Sowards has increased 3 points from 2% to 5%, and this is the first time we included Bill English in the ballot test survey.

Download survey release, toplines, crosstabs and presentation below.

NM 2012 US Senate Republican Primary Survey Release 071911

NM 2012 US Senate Republican Primary Survey Topline Results 071811

NM 2012 US Senate Republican Primary Survey Crosstabs 071811

NM 2012 US Senate Republican Primary Survey Presentation 071911

 

Wisconsin 2012 US Senate Democrat Primary Survey (7/15/11)

Magellan Data and Mapping Strategies today released the results of an autodial survey of 627 likely 2012 Wisconsin Democrat primary voters.  The survey finds Congresswoman Tammy Baldwin leading by more than 20 points over fellow Congressman Ron Kind and former Congressman Steve Kagen in separate head to head ballot tests.  In the Baldwin-Kind ballot test Tammy Baldwin leads Ron Kind 41% to 19% respectively, with 40% of voters undecided.  The Baldwin-Kagen ballot test has Tammy Baldwin leading Steve Kagen by 25 points, 46% to 21% and 33% of voters are undecided. 

The likely Senate candidacy of Tammy Baldwin has been followed nationally because she could be the first openly gay member of the US Senate.  Earlier this week she reported taking in more than $500,000 in the second quarter of this year, and has amassed a war chest of $1.1 million.  The first step for Tammy Baldwin in achieving her goal is winning the Democrat party’s nomination, and the results of this survey show she is in good position to do just that.  With that said, it is still very early, she is below 50% in both ballot tests and there are a significant number of undecided Democrat primary voters.           

Download Survey press release, toplines, crosstabs and presentation below.

WI 2012 US Senate Democrat Primary Survey Release 071511

WI 2012 US Senate Democrat Primary Survey Topline Results 071411

WI 2012 US Senate Democrat Primary Survey Crosstabs 071411

WI 2012 US Senate Democrat Primary Survey Presentation 071411

 

Wisconsin 2012 US Senate Republican Primary Survey (7/15/11)

Magellan Data and Mapping Strategies today released the results of an autodial survey of 638 likely 2012 Wisconsin Republican primary voters.  This very early look at the Wisconsin GOP primary field finds former Governor Tommy Thompson leading former Congressman and 2010 Governor candidate Mark Neumann by 15 points, 41% to 26% respectively.  House Speaker Jeff Fitzgerald is third with 15% support.  Among the 42% of respondents who identify themselves as a member of the Tea Party, Tommy Thompson leads by 15 points over Mark Neumann, 40% to 25%.  Among voters that consider themselves moderate on political issues, the former Governor leads Mark Neumann by 18 points, 46% to 28%. 

The survey also tested a Tommy Thompson/Mark Neumann ballot test.  In that matchup we find a tighter race, with Tommy Thompson leading Mark Neumann by 8 points, 44% to 36%.  The ballot test by voter subgroup finds Tommy Thompson doing well among female voters, seniors, and self-described moderate voters.  Mark Neumann’s strongest voter subgroup is among men, with 42% support.

Download survey press release, toplines, crosstabs and presentation below.

WI 2012 US Senate Republican Primary Survey Release 071511

WI 2012 US Senate Republican Primary Survey Topline Results 071411

WI 2012 US Senate Republican Primary Survey Crosstabs 071411

WI 2012 US Senate Republican Primary Survey Presentation 071411

Iowa 2012 Republican Presidential Caucus Survey (7/13/11)

Louisville, CO – Magellan Data and Mapping Strategies today released the results of an autodial survey of 1,024 likely 2012 Iowa Republican Caucus attendees.  The survey finds Michele Bachmann in the lead with 29% support.  Her nearest challenger is Mitt Romney with 16%, followed by Tim Pawlenty and Herman Cain with 8%.  Ron Paul and Newt Gingrich have 5% support, Rick Santorum has 3%, the generic “some other candidate” has 2% and 24% of respondents are undecided. 

 Michele Bachmann has broad support across all voting subgroups, with particular strength among men and social conservatives.  Among the 44% of respondents that identified themselves as a member of the Tea Party movement, Michele Bachmann leads by 33 points.

Download the survey release, toplines, crosstabs and presentation below

IA 2012 Republican Presidential Caucus Survey Release 071311

IA 2012 Republican Presidential Caucus Survey Topline Results 071311

IA 2012 Republican Presidential Caucus Survey Crosstabs 071311

IA 2012 Republican Presidential Caucus Survey Presentation 071311

Nevada 2012 General Election Survey (6/24/11)

Magellan Data and Mapping Strategies today released the results of an autodial survey of 720 likely 2012 general election voters in Nevada.  This early measurement of potential 2012 US Senate general election ballot tests finds Democrat Congresswoman Shelley Berkley with a two point lead over Republican Senator Dean Heller, 46% to 44%, a statistical tie.  The ballot test of Democrat businessman Byron Georgiou and Sen. Dean Heller finds the Senator leading 46% to 33%, a margin of 13 points.  In 2012 the early political fireworks in Nevada will be the Democrat primary for the United States Senate.  While Shelly Berkley has the full support of the state and national Democrat establishment, Byron Georgiou could potentially weaken the Democrat’s chances of picking up the seat.

Nevada will be a battleground state in the 2012 Presidential race, and the fight for the state’s six electoral votes will be heavily contested by both parties.  Many political observers have commented that President Obama’s job approval and the state of the economy will play a central role in voter’s decision making process.  Our survey finds President Obama with a net negative approval rating among all respondents, with 53% disapproving the job he is doing and 41% approving.  It is no secret that younger voters turning out to vote are vital to the President’s re-election chances.  Among voters aged 18-34 only 45% approve of the job he is doing and 48% disapprove.  These are not good numbers for the Obama campaign, and their challenge will be motivating them to vote in 2012.

Download survey press release, toplines, crosstabs and presentation below.

NV 2012 General Election Survey Release 062411

NV 2012 General Election Survey Topline Results 062211

NV 2012 General Election Survey Crosstabs 062211

NV 2012 General Election Survey Presentation 062211

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