Rand Paul appears to be headed toward a victory tomorrow over Secretary of State Trey Grayson according to our final poll of likely Republican primary voters conducted Sunday night, May 16th.  The ballot test from a survey of 809 likely Republican primary voters has Rand Paul with 55% support, 30% for Trey Grayson, 8% for “another candidate” and 7% undecided.  The Rand Paul Campaign is showing strong momentum heading toward the finish, increasing support by 12 points from our May 4^th survey (Paul 43%) two weeks ago. 

Support for Trey Grayson and the “other candidates” have remained almost unchanged from two weeks ago, with Grayson’s support increasing by two points to 30%, and the “other candidates” receiving 8%.  It appears Rand Paul’s surge is coming from more than half of the 21% of undecided voters in our survey two weeks ago.  We make this inference in consideration that Trey Grayson and the “other candidates” support has remained unchanged. By comparing Rand Paul support from two weeks ago by voter subgroup to the latest survey data, we find significant movement among voters in the First Congressional District, women and voters aged 45 to 64.    

KY US Senate GOP Primary Crosstab Results 050510

KY US Senate GOP Primary Survey Presentation 050510

Among likely Republican primary voters in Kentucky, Rand Paul leads Secretary of State Trey Grayson 43% to 28%.  “Other” candidates have 8% support and 21% remain undecided.  These results are based on a 611N automated survey conducted May 4^th.  Since our last survey on March 9^th, Rand Paul has grown his support by 6 points,   Trey Grayson has dropped one point, the “other” candidate percentage has increased 5 points (without candidate Bill Johnson), and the percentage of undecided voters has decreased by 4 points.  Trey Grayson’s strongest base of support is among self identified social and fiscal moderates.

KY GOP Primary Survey Weighted Crosstabs 031010

KY US Senate GOP Primary Survey Presentation 030910

KY GOP Primary Survey Topline Results 031010