Nevada 2012 Republican Presidential Caucus Survey (10/24/11)

Louisville, CO – Magellan Strategies today released the results of an autodial survey of 673 likely Nevada Republican Presidential caucus goers. The survey finds Mitt Romney leading Herman Cain by 12 points, 38% to 26% respectively, and Newt Gingrich third with 16%. The rest of the field shows Ron Paul with 7%, Rick Perry with 5%, Michele Bachmann with 2%, Rick Santorum with 1%, Jon Huntsman with 1%, and “some other candidate” with 1%. Three percent of respondents are undecided.

Since our last survey at the end of August, Mitt Romney has increased his overall support by 14 points from 24% to 38%. Looking at the ballot test by voter subgroup, we find Mitt Romney with very large margins among women (+22), seniors (+18), and not surprisingly Mormon voters (+67). Among all respondents, 16% identified themselves as Mormon. The race is much tighter among male voters (Romney +2), self-identified Tea Party members (Romney -2) and voters that did not vote in the 2008 Nevada GOP Presidential Caucus (Romney -1). We consider the latter two populations “Sharon Angle” voters, and if Mitt Romney can remain competitive among these two groups he will be in a strong position to win.

Download survey press release, toplines, crosstabs and presentation below.

NV 2012 Republican Presidential Caucus Survey Release 102411

NV 2012 Republican Presidential Caucus Survey Topline Results 102411

NV 2012 Republican Presidential Caucus Survey Crosstabs 102411

NV 2012 Republican Presidential Caucus Survey Presentation 102411

Nevada 2012 Republican Presidential Caucus Survey (9/2/11)

Magellan Strategies today released the results of an autodial survey of 631 likely 2012 Nevada Republican Presidential caucus attendees. The survey finds Rick Perry leading Mitt Romney by 5 points. Among all voters, Rick Perry has 29% support and Mitt Romney has 24% support. The rest of the Republican field rounds out with Herman Cain with 7%, Michele Bachmann with 6%, Ron Paul with 6%, Newt Gingrich with 5%, Rick Santorum and Jon Huntsman with 1% each, the generic “other candidate” with 2%, and 19% are undecided.

Download survey release, toplines, crosstabs and presentation below.

Nevada 2012 Republican Presidential Caucus Survey Release 090211

Nevada 2012 Republican Presidential Caucus Survey Topline Results 090111

Nevada 2012 Republican Presidential Caucus Survey Crosstabs 090111

Nevada 2012 Republican Presidential Caucus Survey Presentation 090111

Nevada 2012 General Election Survey (6/24/11)

Magellan Data and Mapping Strategies today released the results of an autodial survey of 720 likely 2012 general election voters in Nevada. This early measurement of potential 2012 US Senate general election ballot tests finds Democrat Congresswoman Shelley Berkley with a two point lead over Republican Senator Dean Heller, 46% to 44%, a statistical tie. The ballot test of Democrat businessman Byron Georgiou and Sen. Dean Heller finds the Senator leading 46% to 33%, a margin of 13 points. In 2012 the early political fireworks in Nevada will be the Democrat primary for the United States Senate. While Shelly Berkley has the full support of the state and national Democrat establishment, Byron Georgiou could potentially weaken the Democrat’s chances of picking up the seat.

Nevada will be a battleground state in the 2012 Presidential race, and the fight for the state’s six electoral votes will be heavily contested by both parties. Many political observers have commented that President Obama’s job approval and the state of the economy will play a central role in voter’s decision making process. Our survey finds President Obama with a net negative approval rating among all respondents, with 53% disapproving the job he is doing and 41% approving. It is no secret that younger voters turning out to vote are vital to the President’s re-election chances. Among voters aged 18-34 only 45% approve of the job he is doing and 48% disapprove. These are not good numbers for the Obama campaign, and their challenge will be motivating them to vote in 2012.

Download survey press release, toplines, crosstabs and presentation below.

NV 2012 General Election Survey Release 062411

NV 2012 General Election Survey Topline Results 062211

NV 2012 General Election Survey Crosstabs 062211

NV 2012 General Election Survey Presentation 062211