New Mexico 2012 US Senate Democrat Primary Survey (7/19/11)

Magellan Data and Mapping Strategies today released the results of an autodial survey of 636 likely 2012 New Mexico Democrat primary voters. This is our first look at the Democrat primary field in New Mexico. The ballot test shows Congressman Martin Heinrich with 52% support, State Auditor Hector Balderas with 19%, Andres Valdez with 4% and 25% of voters are undecided. Among Hispanic voters that contribute 43% of all respondents, Martin Heinrich leads Hector Balderas 45% to 27%, with 24% undecided. The political ideology of the respondents was 17% conservative, 45% moderate and 30% liberal. Within those voter subgroups we find Hector Balderas doing better among conservative Democrats and Martin Heinrich doing well among liberal Democrats.

Download survey release, toplines, crosstabs and presentation below.

NM 2012 US Senate Democrat Primary Survey Release 071911

NM 2012 US Senate Democrat Primary Survey Topline Results 071811

NM 2012 US Senate Democrat Primary Survey Crosstabs 071811

NM 2012 US Senate Democrat Primary Survey Presentation 071811

New Mexico 2012 US Senate Republican Primary Survey (7/19/11)

Magellan Data and Mapping Strategies today released the results of an autodial survey of 799 likely 2012 New Mexico Republican primary voters. The current ballot test shows Heather Wilson leading by 35 points with 56% support followed by Lt. Governor John Sanchez with 21%, Greg Sowards with 5%, and Bill English with 2% with 15% undecided. Heather Wilson has dropped 3% since our poll in late April when she had 59% of support, but she still maintains a significant lead over the rest of the field. Among the 47% of respondents that are self-described Tea Party voters Heather Wilson leads by 29 points, and among conservative voters she leads by 29 points. Among moderate voters, she leads by a whopping 60 points. Among all respondents 78% identified themselves as conservative in their political views and 19% percent as moderate.

It should be noted that it is still very early in this race, and the candidates are raising money, building support and not spending significant dollars on getting their message out. It should also be noted that our last survey in April John Sanchez had not formally entered the race. Since announcing his candidacy he has improved by 4 points from 17% to 21% support. Greg Sowards has increased 3 points from 2% to 5%, and this is the first time we included Bill English in the ballot test survey.

Download survey release, toplines, crosstabs and presentation below.

NM 2012 US Senate Republican Primary Survey Release 071911

NM 2012 US Senate Republican Primary Survey Topline Results 071811

NM 2012 US Senate Republican Primary Survey Crosstabs 071811

NM 2012 US Senate Republican Primary Survey Presentation 071911

New Mexico 2012 US Senate Republican Primary Survey (4/28/11)

Magellan Data and Mapping Strategies today released the results of an autodial survey of 801 likely 2012 New Mexico US Senate Republican primary voters. The survey finds former Congresswoman Heather Wilson starting off in a very strong position with a solid image rating of 84% of all respondents having a favorable opinion of her, 55% having a very favorable opinion of her, and only 12% having an unfavorable opinion. She is well known among all respondents with name recognition of 99%.

Potential candidate Lt. Governor John Sanchez also has a good image rating, but is lacking the intensity of Heather Wilson’s image rating numbers. Among all respondents, 58% have a favorable opinion of John Sanchez, 22% have a very favorable opinion, and 13% have an unfavorable opinion. He also has good name recognition of 88%.

Although it is very early, Heather Wilson currently leads John Sanchez by a commanding 42 points, 59% to 17%, Greg Sowards has 2% support, 11% support for “some other candidate”, and 11% are undecided. Heather Wilson’s support also demonstrates a strong intensity, with 37% responding as “definitely voting for her”, compared to 9% definitely voting for John Sanchez.

Download survey release, toplines, crosstabs and presentation below.

NM 2012 US Senate GOP Primary Survey Release 042811

NM 2012 US Senate GOP Primary Survey Topline Results 042811

NM 2012 US Senate GOP Primary Survey Crosstabs Results 042811

NM 2012 US Senate GOP Primary Survey Presentation 042811

New Mexico Governor Survey (6/23/10)

The contest for New Mexico Governor is currently a statistical dead heat with 44% of likely voters supporting Dona Ana District Attorney Susana Martinez, 43% supporting Lt. Governor Diane Denish, and 13% are undecided. The ballot test numbers are based on a Magellan Strategies survey of 542 likely New Mexico voters fielded Monday, June 21^st. Looking at ballot test results by voter subgroup, we find Republican Susana Martinez doing very well among men (+17) and Democrat Diane Denish with a 12 point lead among women.

It is apparent that the Martinez Campaign has been successful appealing to 20% of Democrat voters. For the Martinez Campaign to be in a position to win, it is critical that she maintain and grow her current Democrat support of 20%. Democrats traditionally contribute 53% to the overall vote in general elections, so numerically Susana Martinez will need support from as many Democrat voters as possible.

Congressional Generic Ballot Test
“If the election for US Congress was being held today, and all you know about the two candidates was that one was a Democrat, and the other was a Republican, for whom would you vote? The Democrat candidate or the Republican candidate?”

Among all voters, 45% of respondents would vote for the Democrat candidate and 38% for the Republican candidate, a seven point margin. As the table below indicates, the Democrat Party brand is very strong among women and Hispanic voters. The Republican Party brand is strongest among men and independent voters. Responses by Congressional District are interesting considering the 3^rd Congressional District is the most Democratic by voter registration (55%), compared to CD2 (47%) and CD1 (48%).

Download survey release, toplines, crosstabs and presentation below.

NM Governor Survey Press Release 062310

NM Governor Survey Topline Results 062310

NM Governor Survey Crosstabs 062310

NM Governor Survey Presentation 062310