Magellan Strategies » New Hampshire

New Hampshire 2012 Republican Presidential Primary Survey (1/2/12)

Admin — Mon, 02 Jan 2012 16:58:37 +0000

Magellan Strategies and NHJournal.com today released the results of a New Hampshire automated voice recorded survey of 648 likely Republican primary voters, and independent voters that are likely to vote in the Republican Presidential primary. The survey was commissioned by NHJournal.com. The survey finds Mitt Romney well ahead of all challengers, with a 19 point lead on Ron Paul, 40% to 19% respectively, and a 28 point lead on the rest of the field, 40% to 12% respectively. New Hampshire is setting up to be a big momentum state for the Romney Campaign on January 10th. New Hampshire primary voters in the past have produced some surprise winners but currently that does not appear to be the case in 2012.

Download survey press release, toplines, crosstabs and presentation below.

NH 2012 GOP Presidential Primary Survey Press Release 123011

NH 2012 GOP Presidential Primary Survey Topline Results 123011

NH 2012 GOP Presidential Primary Survey Crosstabs 123011

NH 2012 Republican Presidential Primary Survey Presentation 123011

New Hampshire 2012 Republican Presidential Primary Survey (11/18/11)

Admin — Fri, 18 Nov 2011 13:22:41 +0000

Magellan Strategies and NHJournal.com today released the results of a New Hampshire landline autodial survey of 746 likely Republican primary voters, and independent voters that are likely to vote in the 2012 Republican Presidential primary. The survey was commissioned by NHJournal.com.

The survey finds the New Hampshire Republican Presidential primary becoming competitive with Mitt Romney leading Newt Gingrich 29% to 27%, respectively. The strongest “Mitt-alternative” candidates in New Hampshire so far have been Rick Perry in August (18% support) and Herman Cain in October (20% support). Now we find Newt Gingrich breaking the 20% ceiling with 27% support. With seven weeks remaining before the New Hampshire primary, political observers will be closely watching to see if Newt Gingrich can keep the race competitive.

Download survey press release, toplines, crosstabs and presentation below.

New Hampshire 2012 GOP Presidential Primary Survey Release 111811

New Hampshire 2012 GOP Presidential Primary Survey Topline Results 111811

New Hampshire 2012 GOP Presidential Primary Survey Crosstab Results 111811

New Hampshire 2012 GOP Presidential Primary Survey Presentation 111811

New Hampshire 2012 Republican Presidential Primary Survey (10/14/11)

Admin — Fri, 14 Oct 2011 16:21:54 +0000

Magellan Strategies and NHJournal.com today released the results of a New Hampshire landline autodial survey of 736 likely Republican primary voters, and independent voters that are likely to vote in the 2012 Republican Presidential primary. The survey was commissioned by NHJournal.com.

Since our last survey in mid-August the Republican Presidential field has had the opportunity to introduce themselves to voters in five televised debates and spend time campaigning in New Hampshire. The ballot test has changed in the past two months, with positive movement among primary voters for Herman Cain (+17%) and moderate movement for Mitt Romney (+5%). Incremental positive movement is also evident for Jon Huntsman (+3%) and Newt Gingrich (+4%). Candidates that have lost support include Rick Perry (-16%), Michele Bachmann (-6%), and Ron Paul (-4%).

Download survey release, toplines and crosstabs below.

Magellan New Hampshire 2012 GOP Presidential Primary Survey Release 101411

New Hampshire 2012 GOP Presidential Primary Survey Topline Results 101411

New Hampshire 2012 GOP Presidential Primary Survey Crosstabs 101411

New Hampshire 2012 Republican Presidential Primary Survey (8/17/11)

Admin — Thu, 18 Aug 2011 17:14:15 +0000

Magellan Data and Mapping Strategies and NHJournal.com today released a New Hampshire autodial survey of 613 likely Republican primary voters, and independent voters that are likely to vote in the 2012 Republican Presidential primary. The survey finds Mitt Romney maintaining a solid 18 point lead in New Hampshire with 36% support, followed by Rick Perry with 18%, and Ron Paul with 14%. Michele Bachmann rounds out the top tier with 10% support.

Download survey press release, toplines, crosstabs and presentation below.

NH 2012 GOP Presidential Primary Survey Release 081811

NH 2012 Republican Primary Survey Crosstabs 081711

NH 2012 Republican Primary Survey Topline Results 081711

NH 2012 Republican Primary Survey Presentation 081711

New Hampshire Republican Debate and 2012 Primary Survey (6/17/11)

Admin — Fri, 17 Jun 2011 16:00:32 +0000

Magellan Data and Mapping Strategies and NHJournal.com today released a New Hampshire autodial survey of 727 likely Republican primary voters, and independent voters that are likely to vote in the 2012 Republican Presidential primary. The survey was commissioned by NHJournal.com.

The survey finds Mitt Romney leading all announced and potential challengers with 42% support. Congressman Ron Paul and Congresswoman Michelle Bachmann are tied with 10%, and Sarah Palin has 7% support, former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani has 6%. Former Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty receives 5%, former CEO of Godfather’s Pizza Herman Cain with 4%, and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich with 3%. The bottom two candidates are former Utah Governor Jon Huntsman with 3%, and former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum with 2%. Eight percent of respondents are undecided.

Among respondents that watched Monday’s WMUR/Union Leader/Cdebate, 39% of voters think that Mitt Romney had the strongest performance. Twenty eight percent think that Michele Bachmann had the strongest performance, and 8% think Ron Paul had the strongest performance.

Download Survey Press Release, Toplines, Crosstabs and Presentation Below

NH 2012 GOP Presidential Primary Debate Survey Release 061611

NH 2012 GOP Presidential Primary Debate Survey Topline Results 061611

NH 2012 GOP Presidential Primary Debate Survey Crosstabs 061611

NH 2012 GOP Presidential Primary Debate Survey Presentation 061611

New Hampshire 2012 General Election Survey (2/14/11)

Admin — Mon, 14 Feb 2011 18:32:51 +0000

Magellan Data and Mapping Strategies and NHJournal.com today released an autodial survey of 789 likely 2012 general election voters in the state of New Hampshire. The survey included head to head ballot tests of President Obama and four, well known, potential 2012 Republican candidates. In all four ballot tests President Obama’s lead ranges from 4 points to 23 points.

Of the four ballot tests, Mitt Romney shows the most support when matched with President Obama among likely 2012 general election voters. Among all respondents, President Obama leads Mitt Romney, 48% to 44% respectively, and 8% are undecided. The ballot test between Mike Huckabee and President Obama shows the President leading by 13 points, 51% to 38%, and 11% undecided. President Obama leads by 23 points in individual ballot tests with Sarah Palin and Newt Gingrich.

Looking at all four ballot tests by major voter subgroups we find President Obama in a strong position among women, self-identified moderates and independent voters. All three of these subgroups are significant because each will contribute a sizeable portion to the overall 2012 general election vote. With that said, it should to be pointed out that none of the four potential Republican candidates currently have active campaigns promoting themes and messages to attract likely general election voter support.

Download survey release, toplines, crosstabs and presentation below.

NH 2012 General Election Survey Release 021411

NH 2012 General Election Survey Topline Results 021111

NH 2012 General Election Survey Crosstabs 021111

NH 2012 General Election Survey Presentation 021111

New Hampshire 2012 Republican Presidential Primary Survey (1/6/11)

Admin — Thu, 06 Jan 2011 23:50:58 +0000

Louisville, CO– Magellan Data and Mapping Strategies today released an autodial survey of likely 1,451 Republican primary voters, and independent voters that are likely to vote in the 2012 Republican Presidential primary in the state of New Hampshire. The survey was commissioned by NHJournal.com.

The survey finds former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney leading potential challengers with 39% support. Former Alaska Governor and 2008 Vice Presidential candidate Sarah Palin is second with 16%, former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee is third with 10%. Following the top three include former House Speaker Newt Gingrich with 8%, Congressman Ron Paul with 7%, and former Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty with 4%. The bottom two candidates include former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum with 3%, and Mississippi Governor Haley Barbour with 1%. The generic “another candidate” has 4% and 8% responded as undecided.

This survey is a very early measurement of the potential 2012 Republican Presidential primary field. Mitt Romney’s strength is not surprising considering his strong second place finish to John McCain in 2008, and his regional advantage of being a former Governor of a state bordering New Hampshire. Many political observers have commented on the “late” start of potential 2012 Presidential primary candidates in comparison to the 2008 Presidential primary. We agree with this observation, and view the survey results as an “uninformed” snapshot of likely New Hampshire Republican Presidential primary voter opinion.

Download survey press release, topline results, crosstabs and presentation below.

NH 2012 Republican Presidential Primary Survey Release 010611

NH 2012 Republican Presidential Primary Survey Topline Results 010411

NH 2012 Republican Presidential Primary Survey Crosstabs 010411

NH 2012 Republican Presidential Primary Survey Presentation 010511

New Hampshire 2012 Democrat Presidential Primary Survey (12/17/10)

Admin — Fri, 17 Dec 2010 16:41:00 +0000

Among likely 2012 New Hampshire Democrat and independent Presidential primary voters, it is no surprise that President Obama’s strongest opponent would be Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. In a head to head ballot test of the former rivals, President Obama leads Hillary Clinton by 31 points, 59% to 28%. These results are based on an automated survey of 1,002 likely Democrat and independent 2012 Presidential primary voters fielded December 14^th and 15^th.

Two other hypothetical primary matchups were tested of former Vermont Governor Howard Dean and Vermont US Senator Bernie Sanders. In both ballot tests, President Obama demonstrates strong support among Democrat primary voters. The Obama-Dean ballot test finds President Obama with 78%, Howard Dean with 10% and 12% undecided. The Obama-Sanders ballot test shows President Obama with 79%, Bernie Sanders with 8%, and 13% undecided.

Download survey release/topline results, crosstabs and presentation below.

NHJournal-Magellan New Hampshire 2012 Dem Presidential Primary Survey Release 121710

NHJournal-Magellan New Hampshire 2012 Democrat Presidential Primary Survey Crosstabs 121710

NHJournal-Magellan New Hampshire 2012 Democrat Presidential Primary Survey Presentation 121710

New Hampshire GOP Primary Survey (9/13/10)

Admin — Mon, 13 Sep 2010 15:09:01 +0000

In our final poll of the New Hampshire Republican primary for US Senate, we find Kelly Ayotte leading Ovide Lamontagne by 4 points, 35% to 31%. Bill Binnie is third with 14%, Jim Bender with 10%, the generic “another candidate” receives 3%, and 7% are undecided. These results are based on a September 12^th automated survey of 1,083 likely Republican and independent primary voters who intend to vote in the September 14^th primary. This survey has a margin of error of +/- 2.98% at the 95% confidence interval.

The story in this race is the 10 point surge in support for Ovide Lamontagne since our last survey on September 1^st. His increase in support is broad, but not limited to any particular subgroup of voters. He has improved his standing among every major voting subgroup in the state by 9 to 11 points. Kelly Ayotte is still leading the race, and has increased her support by 1 to 3 points across major voting subgroups. Clearly she has been successful “holding” her voters in place.

Download survey press release, toplines, crosstabs and presentaiton below.

NH US Senate GOP Primary Survey Press Release 091310

NH US Senate GOP Primary Survey Topline Results 091310

NH US Senate GOP Primary Survey Crosstabs 091310

NH US Senate GOP Primary Survey Presentation 091310

New Hampshire GOP Primary Survey (9/1/10)

Admin — Fri, 03 Sep 2010 12:10:23 +0000

In the New Hampshire contest for the Republican US Senate nomination, Kelly Ayotte leads Ovide Lamontagne by 13 points, 34% to 21%. Businessmen Bill Binnie and Jim Bender receive 17% and 13% respectively, the generic “another candidate” has 4%, and 11% are undecided. These results are based on an automated survey of 887 interviews of likely Republican and independent primary voters who intend to vote in the September 14^th primary. This survey has a margin of error of +/- 3.3% at the 95% confidence interval. The interviews for the survey were conducted on Wednesday night, September 1^st.

There is little difference in the ballot test between men and women, but a significant difference in candidate support between Republican and independent voters. Among all Republican voters, Kelly Ayotte leads Ovide Lamontagne by 16 points, 37% to 21%. Among independent voters, Kelly Ayotte has a 2 point lead on Bill Binnie, 26% to 24%, and Ovide Lamontagne is a close third with 21%. The ballot test among self described fiscal conservatives is similar to the overall ballot test, with Kelly Ayotte leading Ovide Lamontagne, 33% to 23%. Among self described social conservatives it is a tighter race, with Kelly Ayotte leading Ovide Lamontagne by 5 points, 32% to 27%.

Download survey press release, toplines, crosstabs and presentation below.

NH GOP US Senate Primary Survey Release 090110

NH GOP US Senate Primary Survey Topline Results 090110

NH GOP US Senate Primary Survey Crosstabs 090110

NH GOP US Senate Primary Survey Presentation 090110