Louisville, CO – Magellan Strategies today released the results of an automated landline phone survey of 623 Ohio voters that participated in the 2011 general election. Last Tuesday’s ballot issues in Ohio presented voters with an opportunity to voice their opinions on two issues that will likely be at the forefront of the 2012 election cycle: limiting the collective bargaining rights of state employee unions and Obamacare. Sixty one percent of voters supported the repeal of Senate Bill 5, and 66% supported a constitutional amendment that allows Ohioans to “opt -out” of the new federal health care reform law.
What do these results mean for President Obama’s chances of holding Ohio in 2012? Were the Issue 2 NO voters and Issue 3 YES voters intending to send a message to the President in support or opposition of these policy issues? The Issue 2 and Issue 3 results mean that Ohio will remain a toss-up state in the 2012 Presidential election. The survey finds Democrat and Republican core constituencies’ crossing over and voting for issues that political observers would not expect to see. Among respondents that voted NO on Issue 2, 37% voted YES on Issue 3, and 39% of Issue 3 YES respondents voted NO on Issue 2.
Was the Issue 2 victory a resounding message of support for President Obama? Not necessarily, with only 29% of Issue 2 NO voters responding that President Obama’s involvement was either extremely or very important when making their decision to vote NO on Issue 2. It appears repealing Senate Bill 5 was more about rejecting a law that 61% of Ohioans disagreed with, and less about the President.
In comparison, among Issue 3 YES voters, 44% responded that President Obama’s involvement in the new federal health care law was either extremely or very important when making their decision. Ohio still remains a battleground in the 2012 Presidential election, and both the Obama Campaign and the Republican nominee will be fighting hard to win the state. It is very important to note that the survey results are among voters that voted in the 2011 general election, not likely 2012 general election voters.
Download survey press release, toplines, crosstabs and presentation below.
Ohio 2011 Post General Election Survey Press Release 111611
Ohio 2011 Post General Election Survey Topline Results 111511
Ohio 2011 Post General Election Survey Crosstabs 111511
