Magellan Strategies today released the results of an autodial survey of 702 likely 2012 Pennsylvania general election voters.
The survey finds Barack Obama comfortably leading potential Republican challengers Mitt Romney by 10 points (50% to 40%) and Rick Perry by 15 points (52% to 37%). The President has solid support among voters that overwhelmingly backed him in 2008, including women, voters aged 18 to 34, and self-described moderate voters. It is clear from this survey that those key voting subgroups are still very much with him. Despite this good news for Barack Obama, the mood of these voters is pessimistic, with 62% of women, 64% of self-described moderates, and 54% of voters 18 to 34 feeling things in the country are on the wrong track. It remains to be seen if the eventual Republican nominee can appeal to these voters after the primary.
With that said, it should be noted that Pennsylvania is very tough ground for any Republican Presidential candidate, with statewide voter registration at 51% Democrat, 37% Republican and 12% independent/other. Although Pennsylvania has elected many Republican candidates to statewide office, the last time a Republican Presidential candidate carried the state was in 1988.
Download survey release, toplines, crosstabs, and presentation below
Pennsylvania 2012 General Election Survey Release 091911
Pennsylvania 2012 General Election Survey Topline Results 091911
Pennsylvania 2012 General Election Survey Crosstabs 091911
Pennsylvania 2012 General Election Survey Presentation 091911
