Wisconsin Senate District 18 Recall Election Survey (8/5/11)

Magellan Strategies Baton Rouge today released the survey results of an autodial survey of 1,433 voters in Wisconsin Senate District 18. The survey was conducted August 4, 2011.

The survey finds the race statistically tied. Republican Randy Hopper is currently polling 47.5%, while Democrat Jessica King is polling 50%. The electorate is extremely polarized.  Of the 47.5% Hopper is polling, 46.1% is definitely supporting Hopper and of the 50% King is polling, 48.1% is definitely supporting King.

Download survey press release and toplines below.

WI Senate District 18 Recall Election Survey Release 080511

Wisconsin 2012 US Senate Democrat Primary Survey (7/15/11)

Magellan Data and Mapping Strategies today released the results of an autodial survey of 627 likely 2012 Wisconsin Democrat primary voters.  The survey finds Congresswoman Tammy Baldwin leading by more than 20 points over fellow Congressman Ron Kind and former Congressman Steve Kagen in separate head to head ballot tests.  In the Baldwin-Kind ballot test Tammy Baldwin leads Ron Kind 41% to 19% respectively, with 40% of voters undecided.  The Baldwin-Kagen ballot test has Tammy Baldwin leading Steve Kagen by 25 points, 46% to 21% and 33% of voters are undecided. 

The likely Senate candidacy of Tammy Baldwin has been followed nationally because she could be the first openly gay member of the US Senate.  Earlier this week she reported taking in more than $500,000 in the second quarter of this year, and has amassed a war chest of $1.1 million.  The first step for Tammy Baldwin in achieving her goal is winning the Democrat party’s nomination, and the results of this survey show she is in good position to do just that.  With that said, it is still very early, she is below 50% in both ballot tests and there are a significant number of undecided Democrat primary voters.           

Download Survey press release, toplines, crosstabs and presentation below.

WI 2012 US Senate Democrat Primary Survey Release 071511

WI 2012 US Senate Democrat Primary Survey Topline Results 071411

WI 2012 US Senate Democrat Primary Survey Crosstabs 071411

WI 2012 US Senate Democrat Primary Survey Presentation 071411

 

Wisconsin 2012 US Senate Republican Primary Survey (7/15/11)

Magellan Data and Mapping Strategies today released the results of an autodial survey of 638 likely 2012 Wisconsin Republican primary voters.  This very early look at the Wisconsin GOP primary field finds former Governor Tommy Thompson leading former Congressman and 2010 Governor candidate Mark Neumann by 15 points, 41% to 26% respectively.  House Speaker Jeff Fitzgerald is third with 15% support.  Among the 42% of respondents who identify themselves as a member of the Tea Party, Tommy Thompson leads by 15 points over Mark Neumann, 40% to 25%.  Among voters that consider themselves moderate on political issues, the former Governor leads Mark Neumann by 18 points, 46% to 28%. 

The survey also tested a Tommy Thompson/Mark Neumann ballot test.  In that matchup we find a tighter race, with Tommy Thompson leading Mark Neumann by 8 points, 44% to 36%.  The ballot test by voter subgroup finds Tommy Thompson doing well among female voters, seniors, and self-described moderate voters.  Mark Neumann’s strongest voter subgroup is among men, with 42% support.

Download survey press release, toplines, crosstabs and presentation below.

WI 2012 US Senate Republican Primary Survey Release 071511

WI 2012 US Senate Republican Primary Survey Topline Results 071411

WI 2012 US Senate Republican Primary Survey Crosstabs 071411

WI 2012 US Senate Republican Primary Survey Presentation 071411

Wisconsin US Senate-Elena Kagan Nomination Survey (7/20/10)

Baton Rouge, LA- Based on a Magellan Strategies survey of 1,145 likely voters in Wisconsin, the mood is deplorable.  Sixty-seven percent of voters think things in the country are on the wrong track.  Despite getting 56% of the vote in 2008, President Obama’s job approval is an anemic 41%, while 52% disapprove. 

Augmenting Obama’s problems in Wisconsin is the fact that a plurality of voters (43%) oppose Elena Kagan’s nomination to the U.S. Supreme Court.  Voters are less likely to support her nomination on the grounds that as Dean of Harvard Law School she banned military recruiters from campus (55% less likely) and the fact that she has no judicial experience (54% less likely).  As voters also learn that she will likely be a rubber stamp for Obama’s health care plan, opposition to her nomination jumps by more than 8 points.

 With potential to shape the outcome of the Wisconsin U.S. Senate race, 48% of voters would be less likely to reelect incumbent Democrat Russ Feingold if he supported Kagan’s nomination.  Feingold has a 2 point lead over Ron Johnson.  Feingold’s support is primarily among Democrats (86% Feingold/8% Johnson).  However, he also holds a slight lead over Johnson among Independent voters (41% Feingold/38% Johnson).    

Download survey press release, toplines and crosstabs below.

WI US Senate-Elena Kagan Survey Press Release 072010

WI US Senate-Elena Kagan Survey Topline Results 072010

WI US Senate-Elena Kagan Survey Crosstabs 072010