Magellan Strategies 2016 Colorado U.S. Senate Survey Results
Magellan Strategies today released the results of a live landline and cell phone survey of 500 likely general election voters in Colorado. The interviews were conducted August 29th to 31st and the survey has a margin of error of +/- 4.38% at the 95 percent confidence interval.
Looking at the U.S. Senate race in Colorado, our survey finds Michael Bennet leading Darryl Glenn by 10 points, 48% to 38% respectively. Four percent of voters are supporting Libertarian candidate Lily Tang Williams, 3% support Green Party candidate Arn Menconi, and 7% of voters are undecided. Reviewing the survey data by party, we see that Michael Bennet holds a significant lead among Unaffiliated voters, 46% to 28%, while also holding the support of a very significant portion of his own party’s voters (90%). Senator Bennet also leads convincingly among voters age 18-34 (49% to 28%) and voters age 35-44 (52% to 37%). Darryl Glenn holds a large lead over Senator Bennet among married men (53% to 36%), and also leads among voters age 45-54 (45% to 40%).
U.S. Senate Ballot Test by Voter Subgroup
This survey finds Senator Michael Bennet leading Darryl Glenn by 10 points, a sizable advantage which, if it holds, would be the largest margin of victory in a Colorado U.S. Senate race in quite some time. If the undecided voters break for Darryl Glenn in the next month, this could become a tight race, although it is clear that Senator Bennet has run a strong campaign thus far and that the dynamics of this race will have to shift in order for Darryl Glenn to become competitive.
Survey Weighting Decisions
The survey results are weighted to reflect the age, gender, and party turnout demographics of the 2012 Presidential election in Colorado. While we do think the 2016 voter turnout demographics in Colorado could be different than they were in 2012, we think it is too early to measure a drop in voter turnout intensity by party or age group. We also believe there are strong arguments to be made that Donald Trump’s candidacy could depress some Republican voters from casting a ballot. However, there is also a plausible argument to be made that Hillary Clinton’s campaign is struggling to motivate and inspire some Democrats and younger voters to cast a ballot. The truth is, until ballots are mailed out on October 17th, we will not know if there is a measurable drop in voter turnout by age group or party.
The survey sample was randomly drawn from a Colorado voter file among households containing at least one registered voter. The survey topline and crosstab results are included in this document. Any questions regarding this survey or our methodology should be directed to David Flaherty. He can be reached at 303-861-8585 or by email at firstname.lastname@example.org.
Survey Commissioned By
This survey was not commissioned or paid for by any issue committee, campaign, individual, or independent expenditure group.
About Magellan Strategies
Magellan Strategies offers a wide array of services to candidate campaigns, ballot issue campaigns, government relations firms, trade associations, and local and county governments. Our services include polling, survey research, focus groups, voter data mining, voter data analysis, and campaign consulting and management. Our offices are located in Louisville, Colorado. To learn more about our company please visit http://www.MagellanStrategies.com or call 303-861-8585.