Colorado Minimum Wage / Amendment 70 Survey Results
Magellan Strategies today released the results of a live landline and cell phone survey of 500 likely general election voters in Colorado. The interviews were conducted August 29th to 31st and the survey has a margin of error of +/- 4.38% at the 95 percent confidence interval.
Among all respondents, 55% intend to vote yes and approve Amendment 70, 42% oppose the measure, and 3% of voters are undecided. There are dramatic differences of opinion regarding minimum wage along party lines. Eight in ten Democrats support raising the minimum wage while seven in ten Republicans oppose it. Sixty percent Unaffiliated voters support raising it and 35% oppose it. Marital status is also a fault line regarding this issue. Among all single men 64% support the amendment, as do 72% of single women. Among all married men, a majority of 53% oppose the measure, and among married women 48% support it and 46% oppose it. The bottom line is Amendment 70 currently appears to be in a good position to pass this November. The following table shows the ballot question results by voter subgroup.
“Shall there be an amendment to the Colorado constitution increasing the minimum wage to nine dollars and thirty cents per hour ($9.30) with annual increases of ninety cents ($0.90) each January 1 until it reaches twelve dollars per hour ($12.00) effective January 2020, and annually adjusting it thereafter for cost-of-living increases?”
Support for Increasing Minimum Wage Remains Steady
These findings are consistent with a survey we conducted in January of 2014. At that time Democrats in Congress were talking about raising the national minimum wage. The bottom line is Democrat voters have always supported efforts to raise the minimum wage and Republican voters have opposed it. Unaffiliated voters have typically supported raising the minimum wage, depending on the amount.
Survey Weighting Decisions
The survey results are weighted to reflect the age, gender and party turnout demographics of the 2012 Presidential election in Colorado. While we do think the 2016 voter turnout demographics in Colorado could be different than they were in 2012, we it is too early to measure a drop in voter turnout intensity by party or age group. We also believe there are strong arguments to be made that Donald Trump’s candidacy could depress some Republican voters from casting a ballot. However, there is also a plausible argument to be made that Hillary Clinton’s campaign is struggling to motivate and inspire some Democrats and younger voters to cast a ballot. The truth is until ballots are mailed out on October 17th, we will not know if there is a measurable drop in voter turnout by age group or party.
The survey sample was randomly drawn from a Colorado voter file among households containing at least one registered voter. This survey topline and crosstab results are included in this document. Any questions regarding this survey or our methodology should be directed to David Flaherty. He can be reached at 303-861-8585 or by email at firstname.lastname@example.org.
Survey Commissioned By
This survey and the Amendment 70 ballot question was not commissioned or paid for by any issue committee, campaign, individual, or independent expenditure group.
About Magellan Strategies
Magellan Strategies offers a wide array of services to candidate campaigns, ballot issue campaigns, government relations firms, trade associations and local and county governments. Our services include polling, survey research, focus groups, voter data mining, voter data analysis and campaign consulting and management. Our offices are located in Louisville, Colorado. To learn more about our company please visit http://www.MagellanStrategies.com or call 303-861-8585.