Proposition 107 Survey Results
Magellan Strategies today released the results of a live landline and cell phone survey of 500 likely general election voters in Colorado. The interviews were conducted August 29th to 31st and the survey has a margin of error of +/- 4.38% at the 95 percent confidence interval.
The survey finds that a majority of voters support Proposition 107, the measure on the ballot this November that would re-create a Presidential Primary election in Colorado and would allow unaffiliated voters to vote in that election without declaring a party affiliation. Among all respondents, 54% would vote yes and approve the proposition, 36% would vote no and reject it, and 10% of voters are undecided. Support is, not surprisingly, strongest among unaffiliated voters, with a large majority of 66% voting “yes” to approve the measure.
Interestingly, support is also very strong among Democrats, with 60% supporting Proposition 107. It is among Republican voters that the real opposition is found, as only 39% support the measure, and a majority of 51% intend to vote no and reject it. Looking at the results by age range, the group most likely to support Proposition 107 is the group most likely to feel disenfranchised. Nearly half of voters aged 18 to 34 are registered as unaffiliated, and 69% of that voter subgroup intend approve the ballot measure. The following table shows the Proposition 107 ballot test by voter subgroup.
Proposition 107 Survey Results by Voter Subgroup
The survey finds Proposition 107 having broad support among unaffiliated voters and Democrats and weak support among Republican voters. Proposition 107 appears to be in a position to pass this November, but the final outcome could depend on who turns out to vote. If younger and unaffiliated voters are discouraged from voting because of their dissatisfaction with the candidates at the top of the ticket, the likelihood of Proposition 107 passing could be at risk.
Survey Weighting Decisions
The survey results are weighted to reflect the age, gender and party turnout demographics of the 2012 Presidential election in Colorado. While we do think the 2016 voter turnout demographics in Colorado could be different than 2012, we think it is too early to quantify a drop in voter turnout intensity by party or age group. We also believe there are strong arguments to be made that Donald Trump’s candidacy could depress some Republican voters from casting a ballot. However, there is also a plausible argument to be made that Hillary Clinton’s campaign is struggling to motivate and inspire some Democrats and younger voters to cast a ballot. The truth is until ballots are mailed out on October 17th, we will not know if there is a measurable drop in voter turnout by age group or party.
The survey sample was randomly drawn from a Colorado voter file among households containing at least one registered voter. This survey topline and crosstab results are included in this document. Any questions regarding this survey or our methodology should be directed to David Flaherty. He can be reached at 303-861-8585 or by email at firstname.lastname@example.org.
Survey Commissioned By
This survey and the Proposition 107 ballot question was not commissioned or paid for by any issue committee, campaign, individual, or independent expenditure group.
About Magellan Strategies
Magellan Strategies offers a wide array of services to candidate campaigns, ballot issue campaigns, government relations firms, trade associations and local and county governments. Our services include polling, survey research, focus groups, voter data mining, voter data analysis and campaign consulting and management. Our offices are located in Louisville, Colorado. To learn more about our company please visit http://www.MagellanStrategies.com or call 303-861-8585.