Quick Analysis of Colorado Senate District 19 Ballot Returns as of October 28th
Colorado Democrats and Republicans are locked into a fierce battle for control of the Colorado State Senate. One district that central in determining that outcome is Senate District 19. The race matches up incumbent Republican Senator Laura Woods against Democrat Rachel Zenzinger.
As of this morning 22,569 ballots have been returned, of which 8,688 are from Democrats and 7,285 from Republicans for a Democrat lead of 1,403 more ballot returned. Similar to statewide returns, we find a higher percentage of active Democrats (29.2%) voting than a the percentage of active Republicans (25.6%).
The overall ballots returned by party shows Democrat contributing 38.5%, Republicans 32.3%, and unaffiliated voters 28.0%. At this same time in 2012, Democrats contributed 35.3% of the vote, Republicans 39.5% and unaffiliated voters 24.4%.
Quick Analysis of Colorado Senate District 26 Ballot Returns as of October 28th
Another Senate District in the spotlight is 26. This race is between Republican Nancy Doty and Democrat Daniel Kagan.
As of this morning 21,552 ballots have been returned, of which 8,823 are from Democrats and 6,956 from Republicans for a Democrat lead of 1,867 more ballot returned. A higher percentage of active Democrats (28.5%) have returned a ballot than active Republicans (25.6).
The overall ballots returned by party shows Democrat contributing 40.9%, Republicans 32.3%, and unaffiliated voters 25.5%. At this same time in 2012, Democrats contributed 35.4% of the vote, Republicans 41.5% and unaffiliated voters 22.2%.
Enjoy our reports, and we ask that you please reference a link to Magellan Strategies in any articles, blog posts or media stories that use this information.
David Flaherty, Magellan Strategies
2016 Colorado Ballot Return Reports Data Description
For the remaining days of the election, (not including weekends), Magellan Strategies will be posting daily demographic reports of Colorado ballot returns. To access the report, just click the green button above. The first page of the report breaks out all votes returned by gender, age range, congressional district, the largest 12 counties by population and general election vote history. The breakout of vote history is defined as follows:
Explanation of Vote History Section
0/4 – Registered voters that have no history of voting in an even-year general election in Colorado. They are mostly new registrants and voters that moved to Colorado since the November 2014 general election.
1/4 – Registered voters that voted in 1 of the past 4 general elections, (2014, 2012, 2010, 2008).
2/4 – Registered voters that voted in 2 of the past 4 general elections, (2014, 2012, 2010, 2008).
3/4 – Registered voters that voted in 3 of the past 4 general elections, (2014, 2012, 2010, 2008).
4/4 – Registered voters that voted in 4 of the past 4 general elections, (2014, 2012, 2010, 2008).
Second Page of Report Compares 2016 Ballots Returned to Same Time of 2012 Early and Absentee Votes Cast
The second page of the report compares the demographics of the current ballots returned to the same period during the 2012 general election. Everyone using these reports should understand that this is not a perfect comparison, since Colorado is now an all-mail ballot state and in 2012 it was not. However, a large number of votes were cast during early voting or by absentee during the 2012 election, and we believe this report provides valuable and insightful information.
Any questions or media requests regarding these reports should be directed to Ryan Winger at firstname.lastname@example.org or David Flaherty at email@example.com. You can also call our office at 303-861-8585.