This post is a continuation of our data release from a survey of likely Republican Primary voters in CO that was fielded on April 5th and 6th (margin of error +/- 3.97%). To reiterate, Magellan Strategies fielded this survey with our own resources and it was not paid for by any candidate, campaign, committee, independent expenditure group or individual. We are releasing the results of this survey so that Magellan clients both here in Colorado and around the country have some research data measuring the views and opinions of the Republican primary voter during this very unique election cycle.
One aspect of the race for the Republican nomination for President that we wanted to look at is the question of how a contested Republican National Convention in Cleveland would affect GOP turnout in November. It is no secret that to be successful in November, the Republican Party and GOP-affiliated groups will need to execute a near flawless get-out-the-vote (GOTV) program. However, even the best GOTV plan will fall short if likely Republican voters decide not to vote for the party’s nominee, or choose not to vote at all. The results below show whether or not such a scenario is likely.
Voter Preference of Method to Choose a Nominee in Cleveland
To understand if Republican turnout could be negatively impacted by a contested convention in Cleveland, we first wanted to know what process of choosing a nominee that GOP primary voters would prefer in the event that no candidate has a majority of delegates:
As you may know, there has been a lot of speculation about a contested Republican convention if Donald Trump or Ted Cruz do not have a majority of delegates after the Republican primaries are completed by early June. Which of the following two options do you prefer to decide how a candidate wins the Republican nomination for President if no candidate has a majority of delegates?
Option 1 would give the nomination to the candidate with the most delegates regardless if he has a majority.
Option 2 would have the delegates at the convention decide who the nominee would be, with no restrictions on whom they can name.
The survey data shows that a clear majority of likely Republican Primary voters in Colorado would prefer that the candidate with the most delegates receive the nomination. Not surprisingly, among Donald Trump supporters, 86% prefer option 1. However, it is interesting to note that even among Ted Cruz supporters, 32% prefer Option 1.