Bob Kerrey’s high water mark of support is 40% in ballot tests that include Jon Bruning and Don Stenberg.  Among all respondents, 43% have a favorable opinion of Bob Kerrey, 43% have an unfavorable opinion of him, and 11% have no opinion.  At this time, regardless of who Bob Kerrey runs against, he trails both Republican candidates.

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Nebraska US Senate Survey Press Release 011512

Nebraska US Senate General Election Survey Topline Results 011512

Nebraska US Senate General Election Survey Crosstabs 011512

Nebraska US Senate General Election Survey Presentation 011512

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NH 2012 GOP Presidential Primary Survey Press Release 123011

NH 2012 GOP Presidential Primary Survey Topline Results 123011

NH 2012 GOP Presidential Primary Survey Crosstabs 123011

NH 2012 Republican Presidential Primary Survey Presentation 123011

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Among the three announced Republican candidates tested in the survey, Attorney General Jon Bruning is currently the strongest candidate to face Ben Nelson, with 45% supporting Jon Bruning and 39% supporting Ben Nelson, and 16% of respondents undecided.   The Nelson-Stenberg ballot test is a statistical tie, with Don Stenberg leading Ben Nelson by one point, 41% to 40% respectively.  Ben Nelson leads State Senator Deb Fischer by 6 points, 41% to 35% respectively.

The strongest Republican candidate that is not in the US Senate race is Governor Dave Heineman.  In this hypothetical matchup the survey finds Dave Heineman leading Ben Nelson by 18 points, 51% to 33% respectively.   Dave Heineman is the only Republican candidate tested that wins a plurality of independent voters.

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NE 2012 US Senate General Election Survey Press Release 112811

NE 2012 US Senate General Election Survey Topline Results 112811

NE 2012 US Senate General Election Survey Crosstabs 112811

NE 2012 US Senate General Election Survey Presentation 112811

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The survey finds the New Hampshire Republican Presidential primary becoming competitive with Mitt Romney leading Newt Gingrich 29% to 27%, respectively.  The strongest “Mitt-alternative” candidates in New Hampshire so far have been Rick Perry in August (18% support) and Herman Cain in October (20% support).  Now we find Newt Gingrich breaking the 20% ceiling with 27% support. With seven weeks remaining before the New Hampshire primary, political observers will be closely watching to see if Newt Gingrich can keep the race competitive.

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New Hampshire 2012 GOP Presidential Primary Survey Release 111811

New Hampshire 2012 GOP Presidential Primary Survey Topline Results 111811

New Hampshire 2012 GOP Presidential Primary Survey Crosstab Results 111811

New Hampshire 2012 GOP Presidential Primary Survey Presentation 111811

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AZ 2012 US Senate Republican Primary Election Survey Press Release 111611

AZ 2012 US Senate Republican Primary Election Survey Topline Results 111611

AZ 2012 US Senate Republican Primary Election Survey Crosstabs 111611

AZ 2012 US Senate Republican Primary Election Survey Presentation 111611

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What do these results mean for President Obama’s chances of holding Ohio in 2012? Were the Issue 2 NO voters and Issue 3 YES voters intending to send a message to the President in support or opposition of these policy issues? The Issue 2 and Issue 3 results mean that Ohio will remain a toss-up state in the 2012 Presidential election. The survey finds Democrat and Republican core constituencies’ crossing over and voting for issues that political observers would not expect to see. Among respondents that voted NO on Issue 2, 37% voted YES on Issue 3, and 39% of Issue 3 YES respondents voted NO on Issue 2.

Was the Issue 2 victory a resounding message of support for President Obama? Not necessarily, with only 29% of Issue 2 NO voters responding that President Obama’s involvement was either extremely or very important when making their decision to vote NO on Issue 2. It appears repealing Senate Bill 5 was more about rejecting a law that 61% of Ohioans disagreed with, and less about the President.

In comparison, among Issue 3 YES voters, 44% responded that President Obama’s involvement in the new federal health care law was either extremely or very important when making their decision. Ohio still remains a battleground in the 2012 Presidential election, and both the Obama Campaign and the Republican nominee will be fighting hard to win the state. It is very important to note that the survey results are among voters that voted in the 2011 general election, not likely 2012 general election voters.

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Ohio 2011 Post General Election Survey Press Release 111611

Ohio 2011 Post General Election Survey Topline Results 111511

Ohio 2011 Post General Election Survey Crosstabs 111511

Ohio 2011 Post General Election Survey Presentation 111511

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Since our last survey at the end of August, Mitt Romney has increased his overall support by 14 points from 24% to 38%. Looking at the ballot test by voter subgroup, we find Mitt Romney with very large margins among women (+22), seniors (+18), and not surprisingly Mormon voters (+67). Among all respondents, 16% identified themselves as Mormon. The race is much tighter among male voters (Romney +2), self-identified Tea Party members (Romney -2) and voters that did not vote in the 2008 Nevada GOP Presidential Caucus (Romney -1). We consider the latter two populations “Sharon Angle” voters, and if Mitt Romney can remain competitive among these two groups he will be in a strong position to win.

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NV 2012 Republican Presidential Caucus Survey Release 102411

NV 2012 Republican Presidential Caucus Survey Topline Results 102411

NV 2012 Republican Presidential Caucus Survey Crosstabs 102411

NV 2012 Republican Presidential Caucus Survey Presentation 102411

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Since our last survey in mid-August the Republican Presidential field has had the opportunity to introduce themselves to voters in five televised debates and spend time campaigning in New Hampshire.  The ballot test has changed in the past two months, with positive movement among primary voters for Herman Cain (+17%) and moderate movement for Mitt Romney (+5%).  Incremental positive movement is also evident for Jon Huntsman (+3%) and Newt Gingrich (+4%).  Candidates that have lost support include Rick Perry (-16%), Michele Bachmann (-6%), and Ron Paul (-4%).

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Magellan New Hampshire 2012 GOP Presidential Primary Survey Release 101411

New Hampshire 2012 GOP Presidential Primary Survey Topline Results 101411

New Hampshire 2012 GOP Presidential Primary Survey Crosstabs 101411

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The survey finds Barack Obama comfortably leading potential Republican challengers Mitt Romney by 10 points (50% to 40%) and Rick Perry by 15 points (52% to 37%).  The President has solid support among voters that overwhelmingly backed him in 2008, including women, voters aged 18 to 34, and self-described moderate voters.  It is clear from this survey that those key voting subgroups are still very much with him.  Despite this good news for Barack Obama, the mood of these voters is pessimistic, with 62% of women, 64% of self-described moderates, and 54% of voters 18 to 34 feeling things in the country are on the wrong track.  It remains to be seen if the eventual Republican nominee can appeal to these voters after the primary.    

With that said, it should be noted that Pennsylvania is very tough ground for any Republican Presidential candidate, with statewide voter registration at 51% Democrat, 37% Republican and 12% independent/other.  Although Pennsylvania has elected many Republican candidates to statewide office, the last time a Republican Presidential candidate carried the state was in 1988.                 

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Pennsylvania 2012 General Election Survey Release 091911

Pennsylvania 2012 General Election Survey Topline Results 091911

Pennsylvania 2012 General Election Survey Crosstabs 091911

Pennsylvania 2012 General Election Survey Presentation 091911 

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Our initial set of crosstabs this morning contained an error in the “Other” column under the ”RACE” tabs.  The initial set of crosstabs showed the same number of BLACK respondents (194), in the OTHER column within the RACE category.  This errror has been corrected, and the tabs now show  the correct number of OTHER respondents as 18.  THIS ERROR CORRECTION DOES NOT CHANGE THE RESPONSE PERCENTAGES FOR ANY QUESTION IN THE SURVEY.  The error only reflected an incorrect number of respondents for “other” responses within the race category.  Any further questions regarding this error should be directed to David Flaherty at 303-861-8585 or dflaherty@magellanstrategies.com.   

Magellan Strategies today released the results of an autodial survey of 923 likely 2012 North Carolina general election voters.  The survey finds likely 2012 North Carolina voters in a very pessimistic mood, with 70% thinking the country is off on the wrong track, and only 23% thinking things are headed in the right direction.  Independent voters feel slightly worse than all respondents, with only 13% believing that things are headed in the right direction.

The Obama-Romney ballot test finds Barack Obama leading Mitt Romney by 2 points, 45% to 43% respectively, a statistical tie.  Looking at the results by major voter subgroup, we see Barack Obama doing well among female voters and very well among African-American voters.  Mitt Romney is doing well among seniors, independents, voters aged 18 to 34, and white voters.

The Obama-Perry ballot test finds Barack Obama leading Rick Perry by 5 points, with 48% of respondents supporting the President, and 43% supporting Rick Perry.    

The Perdue-McCrory ballot test finds Pat McCrory leading Governor Perdue by 1 point, a statistical tie, with 44% of respondents supporting Pat McCrory, and 43%, supporting Beverly Perdue.  Pat McCrory is doing well among independents, voters aged 18-34 and white voters, and Beverly Perdue does well among African American voters.

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North Carolina 2012 General Election Survey Release 091211

North Carolina 2012 General Election Survey Topline Results 091211

North Carolina 2012 General Election Survey Crosstabs 091211

North Carolina 2012 General Election Survey Presentation 091211 

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