Political professionals, mathematicians, academics, data scientists, political observers, and the media all refer to it different ways: “predictive data modeling”, “microtargeting”, “data mining”, “predictive analytics”, “predictive market segmentation”, or “cluster analysis”. We refer to it as predictive data modeling, or just voter modeling.
Voter modeling helps you target voters more efficiently.
Voter modeling is a process that predicts what a voter believes in, cares about, who they will vote for and if they will vote at all. That is very powerful information for a campaign decision maker and helps them spend money much more efficiently than using traditional voter targeting methods. The voter modeling process will tell you with a good degree of confidence if a voter:
- Will be more likely to vote for a Republican or Democrat candidate
- Will vote for a specific Republican or Democrat candidate
- Is fiscally conservative, moderate or liberal
- Is socially conservative, moderate or liberal
- Is pro-life or pro choice
- Is comfortable raising taxes for a specific purpose like education or transportation
- Supports or opposes strong immigration policies
- Supports or opposes fracking
- Supports or opposes gun control laws
- Is going to vote early or on Election Day
Voter modeling is incredibly useful to decision makers working in states that do not register voters by party. It is also an advantage when you are trying to understand and segment large universes of independent voters, like here in Colorado. The modeling data enlightens decision makers of which independents are really closet Democrats, closet Republicans or a part of the highly sought after “True Middle” voters that consider voting for candidates of both parties.
Magellan Strategies has completed voter modeling projects in more than 20 states since 2010. Give us a call to talk about how a voter modeling project can help you target voters more efficiently.