Raise the Bar / Amendment 71 Survey Results
Magellan Strategies has released the results of a live landline and cell phone survey of 500 likely 2016 general election voters in Colorado. The interviews were conducted November 1st and 2nd, and the survey has a margin of error of +/- 4.38% at the 95 percent confidence interval.
The survey finds 51% of likely voters supporting Amendment 71, 41% opposing it and 8% being undecided. Since our survey in August support for the amendment has grown by 4 points, opposition has increased by 3 points and the percentage that is undecided has declined by 7 points. The largest gains in support are among voters 55 and older, Republicans and women. Opposition to the amendment has grown among Democrats from 39% to 48%.
“Shall there be an amendment to the Colorado constitution making it more difficult to amend the Colorado constitution by requiring that any petition for a citizen-initiated constitutional amendment be signed by at least 2 percent of the registered electors who reside in each state senate district for the amendment to be placed on the ballot…and increasing the percentage of votes needed to pass any proposed constitutional amendment from a majority to at least fifty-five percent of the votes cast, unless the proposed constitutional amendment only repeals, in whole or in part, any provision of the constitution?”
It is apparent that the paid media campaign on the yes side has been effective in moving Republican voters. However, Democrats and younger voters are less reluctant of being persuaded to the yes side. As we said before in August, we believe turnout will have a big hand in deciding the outcome of this ballot initiative.
Survey Weighting Decisions
Our survey weighting decisions take into account the age, gender, and party turnout demographics of the 2012 Presidential election in Colorado and the demographics of current returned ballot data.
The survey sample was randomly drawn from a Colorado voter file among households containing at least one registered voter. The survey topline and crosstab results are included in this document. Any questions regarding this survey or our methodology should be directed to David Flaherty. He can be reached at 303-861-8585 or by email at email@example.com.
Survey Commissioned By
This survey and the Amendment 71 ballot question was not commissioned or paid for by any issue committee, campaign, individual, or independent expenditure group.
About Magellan Strategies
Magellan Strategies offers a wide array of services to candidate campaigns, ballot issue campaigns, government relations firms, trade associations and local and county governments. Our services include polling, survey research, focus groups, voter data mining, voter data analysis and campaign consulting and management. Our offices are located in Louisville, Colorado. To learn more about our company please visit http://www.MagellanStrategies.com or call 303-861-8585.