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Amendment 71 Survey Results

Magellan Strategies today released the results of a live landline and cell phone survey of 500 likely general election voters in Colorado. The interviews were conducted August 29th to 31st and the survey has a margin of error of +/- 4.38% at the 95 percent confidence interval.

Survey Findings

The survey finds that a plurality of voters support Amendment 71, the proposed constitutional amendment introduced by Raise the Bar Colorado, that would make it more difficult to amendment the Colorado Constitution. Among all respondents, 47% would vote yes and approve the amendment, 38% would vote no and reject it, and 15% of voters are undecided. Support for the amendment is strongest among Republicans and Unaffiliated voters, as 51% of Republicans would vote yes, and 50% of Unaffiliated voters would vote yes. Among Democrats, 39% support the amendment, 39% oppose it and 22% are undecided. The only major voter subgroup where a large plurality oppose the amendment is among voters age 18-34. The following table shows the Amendment 71 ballot test by voter subgroup.

Amendment 71 Survey Results by Voter Subgroup

Raise_the_Bar-table

Summary

The Raise the Bar campaign, with a bipartisan coalition including Governor Hickenlooper, business groups, and other organizations, appear to be close in convincing voters to approve Amendment 71. However, with support for the amendment being below 50%, and 15% of voters being undecided, the final outcome could really go either way. Voter turnout could also play a large role in how this ballot question is decided. If Democrats and younger voters do not vote, Amendment 71 is more likely to pass. At the same time, if Republican voters do not turn out Amendment 71 is less likely to pass.

Survey Weighting Decisions

The survey results are weighted to reflect the age, gender and party turnout demographics of the 2012 Presidential election in Colorado. While we do think the 2016 voter turnout demographics in Colorado could be different than 2012, we think it is too early to quantify a drop in voter turnout intensity by party or age group. We also believe there are strong arguments to be made that Donald Trump’s candidacy could depress some  Republican voters from casting a ballot. However, there is also a plausible argument to be made that Hillary Clinton’s campaign is struggling to motivate and inspire some Democrats and younger voters to cast a ballot. The truth is until ballots are mailed out on October 17th, we will not know if there is a measurable drop in voter turnout by age group or party.

Survey Sample

The survey sample was randomly drawn from a Colorado voter file among households containing at least one registered voter. This survey topline and crosstab results are included in this document. Any questions regarding this survey or our methodology should be directed to David Flaherty. He can be reached at 303-861-8585 or by email at dflaherty@magellanstrategies.com.

Survey Commissioned By

This survey and the Amendment 71 ballot question was not commissioned or paid for by any issue committee, campaign, individual, or independent expenditure group.

About Magellan Strategies

Magellan Strategies offers a wide array of services to candidate campaigns, ballot issue campaigns, government relations firms, trade associations and local and county governments. Our services include polling, survey research, focus groups, voter data mining, voter data analysis and campaign consulting and management. Our offices are located in Louisville, Colorado. To learn more about our company please visit http://www.MagellanStrategies.com or call 303-861-8585.

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