Maryland Governor Survey (7/2/10)

In the rematch of the 2006 Maryland Governor race, Republican Bob Ehrlich currently holds a 3 point lead over incumbent Governor Martin O’Malley, 46% to 43%, 4% of voters prefer “another candidate”, and 7% are undecided.  These results are based on a Magellan Strategies automated survey of 752 likely Maryland voters fielded Tuesday, June 29th.  The ballot test numbers are just within the margin of error of 3.57%.  Looking at the results by voter subgroup, we find 25% of Democrats supporting Bob Ehrlich.  Maintaining that support will be critical to the Ehrlich Campaign considering voter turnout in past election cycles has averaged 58% Democrat, 31% Republican and 11% independent voters.  Governor O’Malley does well among younger voters 18 to 34, with a 9 point lead over Bob Ehrlich, and holds a 1 point lead among women, and voters 55 and older. 

Candidate Image Ratings
Both the current and former Governor, Martin O’Malley is well known among all voters with name recognition of 99%.  Republican Bob Ehrlich currently has a stronger image rating than Governor O’Malley, with 51% of respondents having a favorable opinion of him and 32% having an unfavorable opinion.  Governor O’Malley’s image rating is slightly “upside down” among all voters, with 41% having a favorable opinion of him and 45% having an unfavorable opinion.  Among men, 39% have a favorable opinion of him and 51% have an unfavorable opinion.  Among women, his image ratio is 1 to 1, with 42% having a favorable opinion of him and 41% unfavorable. 

Download survey press release, toplines, crosstabs and presentation below.

MD Governor Survey Press Release 070110

MD Governor Survey Topline Results 070110

MD Governor Survey Crosstabs 070110

MD Governor Survey Presentation 070110

California GOP Primary Survey (5/25/10)

Magellan Data and Mapping Strategies released today a survey of likely California Republican primary voters.  In the race for Governor Meg Whitman leads Steve Poizner 54% to 19%, in the US Senate race Carly Fiorina leads Tom Campbell 44% to 21, with Chuck DeVore receiving 14%.  The full analysis, toplines, crosstabs and presentation can be downloaded below.

CA US Senate and Governor GOP Primary Survey Release 052510

CA US Senate and Governor GOP Primary Survey Crosstabs 052510

CA US Senate and Governor GOP Primary Survey Presentation 052510

What will we see from the 18 to 34 voter demographic this November?

Accurately weighting political survey response data by age group, region, gender, party (if applicable) and race (if applicable) is the ”special sauce” of a reliable survey.  Researchers use a myriad of data sources to determine the proper weighting formula including prior election exit polls or voter files.  I personally use voter file data to determine my demographic quotas across several past election cycles, and rarely do age group demographics change by more than 4 or 5 points for a general election.  

The 2008 general election was the exception, with the 18 to 34 age group increasingby 10 points from prior election cycles.  These voters were overwhelmingly Democrat, Independent and first time voters.  Theirincrease in overall contribution to the total vote decreased the 65 and older contribution by 5 to 8 points.  Politically the result was a strong year for Democrat candidates.  The increase by 10 points among this age demographics occurred in states across the country including Kentucky, Pennsylvania, Colorado, and Illinois.  Looking ahead to the 2010 election the big question is if these younger voters will be motivated to show up.  If their vote contribution reverts to their traditional 8% to 15% overall contribution it could make for a very bad day for Democrat candidates up and down the ticket.