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Cell Phone Interviewing Will Be Mandatory for All Surveys in the Very Near Future (12/31/10)

It is no surprise to the survey research community and knowledgeable political observers that the growing population of cell phone only households will require reliable surveys in the near future to include both land line and cell phone sample.  Our friends at the American Association of Public Opinion Research, (AAPOR), in late 2010 released the latest findings of the AAPOR Cell Phone Task Force (www.AAPOR.org).  Cell_phoneThe report contains thorough research, data and information that is incredibly helpful to researchers in determining how to survey the cell phone only and cell phone/land line population.  There are significant differences in the demographics between individuals that use their cell phones “most of the time”, compared to using a land line phone “most of the time”.  According to extensive reaseach conducted by Pew Research Center and AP/GfK-Roper using RDD (random digit dialing) cell phone sample:

RDD cell phone sample is demographically more male compared to land line RDD cell sample, 57%/59% to 43%/41% respectively.

RDD cell phone sample is demographically younger compared to land line RDD cell sample, among 18-34 39%/36% to 13%/11% respectively.

RDD cell phone sample is demographically less white compared to landline RDD cell sample, 67%/74% to 79% to 81% respectively.

The bottom line is the growth of cell phone only and cell phone/land line households will require a dual frame approach for all surveys to achieve acceptable coverage of the population being surveyed.  Magellan intends to invest significant resources in 2011 to test and finalize a process that is affordable and reliable for all our clients.

Great AAPOR Session on Public Survey Transparency and Data Disclosure

chidt_phototour01At tonight’s AAPOR dinner in Chicago there was a great panel that included Mark Blumenthal of Pollster.com, and Gary Langer of ABC News.  The discussion was about what information should be included in publicly released survey data.  Langer pointed out his standards of evaluating publicly released survey data and made the point that coverage, especially cell phone coverage, in a survey is very important to him.  Since Magellan releases election survey data to the public from time to time I was very interested in what they both considered relevant and useful to them in evaluating whether or not a survey is valid, and if the data is presented fairly.  AAPOR is working on new standards that they hope members and non members will adhere to in the future.  More to come over the next few days……….

Blogging from American Assoc of Public Opinion Research Conference in Chicago

Chicago Skyline

I am in Chicago with my project managers Mallory Reid and Courtney Gibbon.  We are very excited to sit in on a bunch of great presentations and seminars through Sunday and will be sharing the best of the best with you over the next few days.  We are particularly interested in hearing reports about the increase in cell phone only households, changing attitudes and the intensity of public opinion, as well as sample and survey methodology studies.  This stuff may be somewhat dry for the average person but to a researcher this is one of the best annual conventions to attend and learn from the research industry’s best minds.  Stay tuned!!

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