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Wisconsin US Senate-Elena Kagan Nomination Survey (7/20/10)

Baton Rouge, LA- Based on a Magellan Strategies survey of 1,145 likely voters in Wisconsin, the mood is deplorable.  Sixty-seven percent of voters think things in the country are on the wrong track.  Despite getting 56% of the vote in 2008, President Obama’s job approval is an anemic 41%, while 52% disapprove. 

Augmenting Obama’s problems in Wisconsin is the fact that a plurality of voters (43%) oppose Elena Kagan’s nomination to the U.S. Supreme Court.  Voters are less likely to support her nomination on the grounds that as Dean of Harvard Law School she banned military recruiters from campus (55% less likely) and the fact that she has no judicial experience (54% less likely).  As voters also learn that she will likely be a rubber stamp for Obama’s health care plan, opposition to her nomination jumps by more than 8 points.

 With potential to shape the outcome of the Wisconsin U.S. Senate race, 48% of voters would be less likely to reelect incumbent Democrat Russ Feingold if he supported Kagan’s nomination.  Feingold has a 2 point lead over Ron Johnson.  Feingold’s support is primarily among Democrats (86% Feingold/8% Johnson).  However, he also holds a slight lead over Johnson among Independent voters (41% Feingold/38% Johnson).    

Download survey press release, toplines and crosstabs below.

WI US Senate-Elena Kagan Survey Press Release 072010

WI US Senate-Elena Kagan Survey Topline Results 072010

WI US Senate-Elena Kagan Survey Crosstabs 072010

Arkansas US Senate-Elena Kagan Nomination Survey (7/19/10)

Baton Rouge, LA- Based on a Magellan Strategies survey of 897 likely voters in Arkansas, President Barack Obama and U.S. Senator Blanche Lincoln are plagued by poor approval ratings.  Augmenting President Obama’s 69% disapproval rating is the fact that 54% of the voters oppose his U.S. Supreme Court nominee, Elena Kagan, while only 28% support her nomination.  As voters learn more about nominee Kagan’s lack of judicial experience, her treatment of the military at Harvard and that she will likely be a rubber stamp for Obama’s healthcare plan, opposition to her nomination jumps by more than 10 points.

It appears that Obama’s problems are also Lincoln’s problems.  Forty-nine percent of Arkansas voters would be less likely to support her reelection if she supported the President’s Supreme Court nominee, Elena Kagan. 

Opponent John Boozman has a commanding lead over Lincoln.  Boozman’s support is broad based and includes two demographic groups that were key to the Democrat’s success in 2008; Independents and young voters.  Among Independents, Boozman is leading by 45 points (63% Boozman/17% Lincoln); among young voters (18-44) he leads her by  40 points (64% Boozman/24% Lincoln).

Download survey press release, toplines and crosstabs below.

AR US Senate-Kagan Nomination Survey Press Release 071910

AR US Senate-Kagan Nomination Survey Topline Results 071910

AR US Senate-Kagan Nomination Survey Crosstabs 071910

New Mexico Governor Survey (6/23/10)

The contest for New Mexico Governor is currently a statistical dead heat with 44% of likely voters supporting Dona Ana District Attorney Susana Martinez, 43% supporting Lt. Governor Diane Denish, and 13% are undecided.  The ballot test numbers are based on a Magellan Strategies survey of 542 likely New Mexico voters fielded Monday, June 21st.  Looking at ballot test results by voter subgroup, we find Republican Susana Martinez doing very well among men (+17) and Democrat Diane Denish with a 12 point lead among women.  

It is apparent that the Martinez Campaign has been successful appealing to 20% of Democrat voters.  For the Martinez Campaign to be in a position to win, it is critical that she maintain and grow her current Democrat support of 20%.  Democrats traditionally contribute 53% to the overall vote in general elections, so numerically Susana Martinez will need support from as many Democrat voters as possible.

Congressional Generic Ballot Test
“If the election for US Congress was being held today, and all you know about the two candidates was that one was a Democrat, and the other was a Republican, for whom would you vote?  The Democrat candidate or the Republican candidate?”

Among all voters, 45% of respondents would vote for the Democrat candidate and 38% for the Republican candidate, a seven point margin.  As the table below indicates, the Democrat Party brand is very strong among women and Hispanic voters.  The Republican Party brand is strongest among men and independent voters.  Responses by Congressional District are interesting considering the 3rd Congressional District is the most Democratic by voter registration (55%), compared to CD2 (47%) and CD1 (48%). 

Download survey release, toplines, crosstabs and presentation below.

NM Governor Survey Press Release 062310

NM Governor Survey Topline Results 062310

NM Governor Survey Crosstabs 062310

NM Governor Survey Presentation 062310

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