Nebraska Ben Nelson 2012-Elena Kagan Nomination Survey (7/19/10)

Baton Rouge, LA- Based on a Magellan Strategies survey of 855 likely voters conducted in Nebraska, an alarming 73% of voters think things in the country are on the wrong track and 63% of voters disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing as President.  Augmenting Obama’s problems in Nebraska is the fact that nearly a majority of voters (48%) oppose Elena Kagan’s nomination to the U.S. Supreme Court.  Voters are less likely to support her nomination on the grounds that if nominated she would potentially rule in favor of President Obama’s health care bill (63% less likely) and as Dean of Harvard Law School she banned military recruiters from campus (62% less likely).  As voters also learn more about her lack of judicial experience, opposition to her nomination jumps by 12 points.

In a hypothetical 2012 U.S. Senate match-up, incumbent Ben Nelson would trail Governor Dave Heineman by 30 points if the election were held today (Heineman 58%/ Nelson 28%/ 15% Undecided).     Enlarging Nelson’s problem is a weak image.  Only 32% of Nebraska voters have a favorable opinion of him, while 57% have an unfavorable opinion of him. 

Download survey press release, toplines and crosstabs below.

NE 2012 US Senate – Kagan Nomination Survey Press Release 071910

NE 2012 US Senate – Kagan Nomination Survey Topline Results 071910

NE 2012 US Senate – Kagan Nomination Survey Crosstabs 071910

Oregon Governor Survey (6/30/10)

The election for Oregon Governor is currently a statistical dead heat with 41% of likely voters supporting businessman Chris Dudley, 40% supporting former Governor John Kitzhaber, 10% support another candidate, and 9% are undecided.  The ballot test numbers are based on a Magellan Strategies survey of 963 likely Oregon voters fielded Monday, June 28th.  Looking at ballot test results by voter subgroup, we find Republican Chris Dudley doing well among independent voters with 41% support compared to 27% for John Kitzhaber.

Both candidates are well known among all voters.  Former Governor John Kitzhaber has name recognition of 96%, while businessman Chris Dudley has name recognition of 93%.  John Kitzhaber has an image ratio of 1 to 1, with 43% of voters having a favorable opinion of him and 40% having an unfavorable opinion.  Chris Dudley has an image ratio of 2 to 1, with 42% of voters having a favorable opinion of him and 21% having an unfavorable opinion.  John Kitzhaber’s image rating is slightly “upside down” among men, 43% favorable/48% unfavorable.  Women have a more positive opinion of John Kitzhaber, with 43% favorable and 34% unfavorable.  Chris Dudley has a stronger image among men than women, with 47% having a favorable opinion of him compared to 38% of women.

Download survey press release, toplines, crosstabs and presentation below.

OR Governor Survey Press Release 063010 

OR Governor Survey Topline Results 063010

OR Governor Survey Crosstabs 063010

OR Governor Survey Presentation 063010

New Mexico Governor Survey (6/23/10)

The contest for New Mexico Governor is currently a statistical dead heat with 44% of likely voters supporting Dona Ana District Attorney Susana Martinez, 43% supporting Lt. Governor Diane Denish, and 13% are undecided.  The ballot test numbers are based on a Magellan Strategies survey of 542 likely New Mexico voters fielded Monday, June 21st.  Looking at ballot test results by voter subgroup, we find Republican Susana Martinez doing very well among men (+17) and Democrat Diane Denish with a 12 point lead among women.  

It is apparent that the Martinez Campaign has been successful appealing to 20% of Democrat voters.  For the Martinez Campaign to be in a position to win, it is critical that she maintain and grow her current Democrat support of 20%.  Democrats traditionally contribute 53% to the overall vote in general elections, so numerically Susana Martinez will need support from as many Democrat voters as possible.

Congressional Generic Ballot Test
“If the election for US Congress was being held today, and all you know about the two candidates was that one was a Democrat, and the other was a Republican, for whom would you vote?  The Democrat candidate or the Republican candidate?”

Among all voters, 45% of respondents would vote for the Democrat candidate and 38% for the Republican candidate, a seven point margin.  As the table below indicates, the Democrat Party brand is very strong among women and Hispanic voters.  The Republican Party brand is strongest among men and independent voters.  Responses by Congressional District are interesting considering the 3rd Congressional District is the most Democratic by voter registration (55%), compared to CD2 (47%) and CD1 (48%). 

Download survey release, toplines, crosstabs and presentation below.

NM Governor Survey Press Release 062310

NM Governor Survey Topline Results 062310

NM Governor Survey Crosstabs 062310

NM Governor Survey Presentation 062310

Louisiana Voter Survey of Handling Gulf Oil Spill, US Senate General Election Ballot Test (6/14/10)

Today, Magellan Data and Mapping Strategies released a survey of 1,030 likely Louisiana general election voters measuring opinion about Governor Bobby Jindal and President Obama’s handling of the Gulf of Mexico oil spill.  Among likely general election voters in Louisiana, 66% approve of the way Governor Bobby Jindal is handling the oil spill and 21% disapprove.  Overall, these are good numbers for Governor Jindal, with an approval ratio of 3 to 1.  A majority of respondents, 60%, disapprove of President Obama’s handling of the oil spill and 31% approve. 

It is clear that Louisiana voters, regardless of party affiliation, value the economic and job benefits of the oil industry to the state.  Respondents overwhelmingly favor the expansion of offshore drilling, 72%, and two thirds, 64%, oppose the Obama administration’s 6 month moratorium on offshore drilling.  Despite the oil spill tragedy in the Gulf, Louisiana voters apparently do not want off shore drilling to come to a complete halt.  This is understandable considering the thousands of families and individuals that depend on the industry for jobs.

Download survey release, toplines and crosstab results below.

Magellan Louisiana Voter Oil Spill Survey Release 061410