What will we see from the 18 to 34 voter demographic this November?

Accurately weighting political survey response data by age group, region, gender, party (if applicable) and race (if applicable) is the ”special sauce” of a reliable survey.  Researchers use a myriad of data sources to determine the proper weighting formula including prior election exit polls or voter files.  I personally use voter file data to determine my demographic quotas across several past election cycles, and rarely do age group demographics change by more than 4 or 5 points for a general election.  

The 2008 general election was the exception, with the 18 to 34 age group increasingby 10 points from prior election cycles.  These voters were overwhelmingly Democrat, Independent and first time voters.  Theirincrease in overall contribution to the total vote decreased the 65 and older contribution by 5 to 8 points.  Politically the result was a strong year for Democrat candidates.  The increase by 10 points among this age demographics occurred in states across the country including Kentucky, Pennsylvania, Colorado, and Illinois.  Looking ahead to the 2010 election the big question is if these younger voters will be motivated to show up.  If their vote contribution reverts to their traditional 8% to 15% overall contribution it could make for a very bad day for Democrat candidates up and down the ticket.

Hiring Election Data Professionals is Imperative for a Successful “Absentee Chase” Program in 2010

More voters are choosing to cast their ballots during early voting periods and by absentee mail, especially in high growth southwestern states.  In the 2008 general election roughly 50% of the overall votes cast were absentee and 12% during the early voting period.  In Arizona and New Mexico early voting is on the rise.  These ”method of voting” trends decrease the importance and effectiveness of 72 hour GOTV programs.  Campaigns, party organizations and Victory programs that understand these trends and invest in experienced election data management professionals will be able to run more effective GOTV programs. 

Depending on the availability of voter absentee request data, a campaign can know ahead of time who is going to receive and absentee ballot in the mail.  This is a gift to campaigns because voters who have requested an absentee ballot are very likely to vote.  This information allows a campaign to be much more effective in communicating their message to likely voters.  It also allows a campaign to remove individuals from a target list and thus save time, money and human resources contacting that voter. 

Magellan Data and Mapping Strategies handled the data collection for the Colorado Victory during the 2008 general election.  Our team converted the raw data from the Colorado Secretary of State on a daily basis, flagged voters that had returned their ballot, and provided daily reports by county, Congressional District, legislative district and party.  This allowed every Republican stakeholder in the election to know exactly how many individuals had returned their ballots, and how many had not by party.  This information allowed Victory to adjust phone and door to door efforts in real time.  If the Republican Party is going to be successful in 2010 turning out the vote it will need to invest in experienced campaign data professionals. 

Examples of Magellan’s 2008 Daily “Absentee-Chase” Reports are Below

CO Abs Requests, Returns, Early Voting and Total Vote Count by State Senate District as of October 26, 2008

CO Abs Requests, Returns, Early Voting and Total Vote Count by State House District as of October 26, 2008

CO Abs Requests, Returns, Early Voting and Total Vote Count by County as of October 26, 2008

CO Abs Requests, Returns, Early Voting and Total Vote Count by CD as of October 26, 2008