Nebraska 2012 US Senate General Election Survey (11/28/11)

Magellan Strategies today released the results of an automated survey of 645 likely 2012 Nebraska general election voters fielded on November 20th and 21st.  The survey measured image ratings and ballot tests of incumbent Democrat Senator Ben Nelson, and Republican candidates Jon Bruning, Don Stenberg, and Deb Fischer.  The survey also included Republican Governor Dave Heineman, although he announced in November of 2010 that he would not be a candidate for the US Senate in 2012.

Among the three announced Republican candidates tested in the survey, Attorney General Jon Bruning is currently the strongest candidate to face Ben Nelson, with 45% supporting Jon Bruning and 39% supporting Ben Nelson, and 16% of respondents undecided.   The Nelson-Stenberg ballot test is a statistical tie, with Don Stenberg leading Ben Nelson by one point, 41% to 40% respectively.  Ben Nelson leads State Senator Deb Fischer by 6 points, 41% to 35% respectively.

The strongest Republican candidate that is not in the US Senate race is Governor Dave Heineman.  In this hypothetical matchup the survey finds Dave Heineman leading Ben Nelson by 18 points, 51% to 33% respectively.   Dave Heineman is the only Republican candidate tested that wins a plurality of independent voters.

Download survey press release, toplines, crosstabs and presentation below.

NE 2012 US Senate General Election Survey Press Release 112811

NE 2012 US Senate General Election Survey Topline Results 112811

NE 2012 US Senate General Election Survey Crosstabs 112811

NE 2012 US Senate General Election Survey Presentation 112811

Nebraska Ben Nelson 2012-Elena Kagan Nomination Survey (7/19/10)

Baton Rouge, LA- Based on a Magellan Strategies survey of 855 likely voters conducted in Nebraska, an alarming 73% of voters think things in the country are on the wrong track and 63% of voters disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing as President.  Augmenting Obama’s problems in Nebraska is the fact that nearly a majority of voters (48%) oppose Elena Kagan’s nomination to the U.S. Supreme Court.  Voters are less likely to support her nomination on the grounds that if nominated she would potentially rule in favor of President Obama’s health care bill (63% less likely) and as Dean of Harvard Law School she banned military recruiters from campus (62% less likely).  As voters also learn more about her lack of judicial experience, opposition to her nomination jumps by 12 points.

In a hypothetical 2012 U.S. Senate match-up, incumbent Ben Nelson would trail Governor Dave Heineman by 30 points if the election were held today (Heineman 58%/ Nelson 28%/ 15% Undecided).     Enlarging Nelson’s problem is a weak image.  Only 32% of Nebraska voters have a favorable opinion of him, while 57% have an unfavorable opinion of him. 

Download survey press release, toplines and crosstabs below.

NE 2012 US Senate – Kagan Nomination Survey Press Release 071910

NE 2012 US Senate – Kagan Nomination Survey Topline Results 071910

NE 2012 US Senate – Kagan Nomination Survey Crosstabs 071910