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Wisconsin US Senate-Elena Kagan Nomination Survey (7/20/10)

Baton Rouge, LA- Based on a Magellan Strategies survey of 1,145 likely voters in Wisconsin, the mood is deplorable.  Sixty-seven percent of voters think things in the country are on the wrong track.  Despite getting 56% of the vote in 2008, President Obama’s job approval is an anemic 41%, while 52% disapprove. 

Augmenting Obama’s problems in Wisconsin is the fact that a plurality of voters (43%) oppose Elena Kagan’s nomination to the U.S. Supreme Court.  Voters are less likely to support her nomination on the grounds that as Dean of Harvard Law School she banned military recruiters from campus (55% less likely) and the fact that she has no judicial experience (54% less likely).  As voters also learn that she will likely be a rubber stamp for Obama’s health care plan, opposition to her nomination jumps by more than 8 points.

 With potential to shape the outcome of the Wisconsin U.S. Senate race, 48% of voters would be less likely to reelect incumbent Democrat Russ Feingold if he supported Kagan’s nomination.  Feingold has a 2 point lead over Ron Johnson.  Feingold’s support is primarily among Democrats (86% Feingold/8% Johnson).  However, he also holds a slight lead over Johnson among Independent voters (41% Feingold/38% Johnson).    

Download survey press release, toplines and crosstabs below.

WI US Senate-Elena Kagan Survey Press Release 072010

WI US Senate-Elena Kagan Survey Topline Results 072010

WI US Senate-Elena Kagan Survey Crosstabs 072010

Nebraska Ben Nelson 2012-Elena Kagan Nomination Survey (7/19/10)

Baton Rouge, LA- Based on a Magellan Strategies survey of 855 likely voters conducted in Nebraska, an alarming 73% of voters think things in the country are on the wrong track and 63% of voters disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing as President.  Augmenting Obama’s problems in Nebraska is the fact that nearly a majority of voters (48%) oppose Elena Kagan’s nomination to the U.S. Supreme Court.  Voters are less likely to support her nomination on the grounds that if nominated she would potentially rule in favor of President Obama’s health care bill (63% less likely) and as Dean of Harvard Law School she banned military recruiters from campus (62% less likely).  As voters also learn more about her lack of judicial experience, opposition to her nomination jumps by 12 points.

In a hypothetical 2012 U.S. Senate match-up, incumbent Ben Nelson would trail Governor Dave Heineman by 30 points if the election were held today (Heineman 58%/ Nelson 28%/ 15% Undecided).     Enlarging Nelson’s problem is a weak image.  Only 32% of Nebraska voters have a favorable opinion of him, while 57% have an unfavorable opinion of him. 

Download survey press release, toplines and crosstabs below.

NE 2012 US Senate – Kagan Nomination Survey Press Release 071910

NE 2012 US Senate – Kagan Nomination Survey Topline Results 071910

NE 2012 US Senate – Kagan Nomination Survey Crosstabs 071910

Arkansas US Senate-Elena Kagan Nomination Survey (7/19/10)

Baton Rouge, LA- Based on a Magellan Strategies survey of 897 likely voters in Arkansas, President Barack Obama and U.S. Senator Blanche Lincoln are plagued by poor approval ratings.  Augmenting President Obama’s 69% disapproval rating is the fact that 54% of the voters oppose his U.S. Supreme Court nominee, Elena Kagan, while only 28% support her nomination.  As voters learn more about nominee Kagan’s lack of judicial experience, her treatment of the military at Harvard and that she will likely be a rubber stamp for Obama’s healthcare plan, opposition to her nomination jumps by more than 10 points.

It appears that Obama’s problems are also Lincoln’s problems.  Forty-nine percent of Arkansas voters would be less likely to support her reelection if she supported the President’s Supreme Court nominee, Elena Kagan. 

Opponent John Boozman has a commanding lead over Lincoln.  Boozman’s support is broad based and includes two demographic groups that were key to the Democrat’s success in 2008; Independents and young voters.  Among Independents, Boozman is leading by 45 points (63% Boozman/17% Lincoln); among young voters (18-44) he leads her by  40 points (64% Boozman/24% Lincoln).

Download survey press release, toplines and crosstabs below.

AR US Senate-Kagan Nomination Survey Press Release 071910

AR US Senate-Kagan Nomination Survey Topline Results 071910

AR US Senate-Kagan Nomination Survey Crosstabs 071910

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