Colorado “First Time” Primary Voters Dominate Elections in Both Parties (8/10/10)

In the Colorado Democrat and Republican primary elections, voters that have never voted in a primary are having a big impact on the overall primary vote. In the Republican primary at least 87,314 voters, or 28% of Republican votes cast have been among voters that have never voted in a primary. This is the largest subgroup of returned ballots when compiling returned ballots by primary vote history. In the Democrat primary at least 90,901 voters, or 32.5% have returned a ballot and have never voted in a primary. We say “at least” because we were unable to match 6,727 Democrat ballots and 11,450 Republican ballots to our voter file. Looking at the counts of Republican voters who have returned ballots by vote history we find:

Past Primary	Ballots	Pct. Of
Vote History	Returned	TotalVote
0 of 4	87,314	28.0%
1 of 4	68,623	22.0%
2 of 4	54,745	17.6%
3 of 4	51,879	16.6%
4 of 4	49,123	15.8%
	311,684

In the Democrat primary the returned ballots by vote history show:

Past Primary	Ballots	Pct. Of
Vote History	Returned	Total Vote
0 of 4	90,901	32.5%
1 of 4	67,948	24.3%
2 of 4	49,117	17.6%
3 of 4	40,590	14.5%
4 of 4	30,981	11.1%
	279,537

A political observer can draw a number of conclusions based on these data of first time primary voters in both parties. But it is clear that campaigns that recognized the growth of these “first time” primary voters early on should do better in tonight’s primary finale.

Colorado US Senate GOP Primary Survey (7/21/10)

Magellan Data and Mapping Strategies are pleased to present this executive summary of an automated survey of 759 likely Colorado Republican primary voters. The interviews were conducted on July 21^st. This survey has a margin of error of +/- 3.5% at the 95% confidence interval. The survey results are weighted to reflect past Republican primary turnout demographics from the 2008, 2006, 2004 and 2002 general election cycles.

Among likely Republican primary voters in Colorado, Weld County District Attorney Ken Buck leads former Lt. Governor Jane Norton by 9 points, 46% to 37%, and 17% remain undecided. Since our last survey on June 8^th Ken Buck’s support has increased by 4 points from 42% to 46%, and Jane Norton’s support has increased by 5 points, from 32% to 37%. Among male voters Buck leads Norton by 11 points, 49% to 38%, among women Buck leads by 6 points, 42% to 36%.

Download the survey memorandum below.

Colorado US Senate GOP Primary Survey Memorandum 072210

Colorado US Senate GOP Primary Survey (6/8/10)

Among likely Republican primary voters in Colorado, Weld County District Attorney Ken Buck leads former Lt. Governor Jane Norton, 42% to 32%, and 26% remain undecided. These results are based on a 1,026N automated survey conducted Tuesday, June 8^th. Since our first internal survey of likely Republican primary voters fielded on March 14^th, support for Ken Buck has increased by 27 points, from 15% to 42%. Support for Jane Norton has declined by 9 points, from 41% to 32%.

Download survey toplines, crosstabs and presentation below.

CO US Senate Survey Release and Toplines 060910

CO GOP US Senate Primary Survey Crosstabs 060810

CO GOP US Senate Primary Survey Presentation 060810

Which one of these Republican US Senate candidates killed the Taxpayer Bill of Rights?

Republican primary voters across the country are not very forgiving this year when it comes to Republican primary candidates that have a history of increasing government spending by billions of dollars, or even worse removing taxpayer rebates from the books.

Last week Colorado US Senate candidate Jane Norton attended a fundraiser with US Senate candidates Marco Rubio of Florida and Pat Toomey of Pennsylvania. Marco Rubio has become the champion of fiscal conservatives and the Tea Party movement because they trust him to stop the federal spending spigot in Washington more than his opponent Governor Charlie Crist who embraced federal bailout money. Pat Toomey is the former head Club for Growth, an organization dedicated to making life very difficult for RINO’s, (Republicans in Name Only), who have a bad habit of spending millions of federal dollars on earmarks and pet projects through the Appropriations Committee.

So what are Jane Norton’s credentials as a champion of cutting government spending? Well as Lieutenant Governor of Colorado she supported Referendum C back in 2005, which killed one of the most effective tools ever created to control government spending. Referendum C also killed TABOR, also known as the Taxpayer Bill of Rights, which rebated $3.2 BILLION dollars to hard working Colorado taxpayers between 1997 and 2002. So what did Jane Norton do for us taxpayers for supporting Referendum C?

Well by according to the Independence Institute of Golden Colorado, “Starting in 2011 Referendum C is estimated to grow state spending by $995 MILLION, plus annual increases for population and inflation every year thereafter, assuming there isn’t another economic downturn.” Referendum C, The Wrong Solution for the Wrong Problem, March 1, 2010, page 3

Colorado Republican primary voters are doing their homework on the candidates this primary cycle, and anyone that has a history of increasing government spending or supporting Referendum C have a lot of explaining to do, and that is what Jane Norton has been doing, a lot of posturing and explaining. I wonder if Pat Toomey asked her what it feels like to increase government spending by billions of dollars, and even worse, kill a rebate that kept $3.2 BILLION dollars in the hands of taxpayers and away from the government.

Maybe that is why taxpayer champion Sen. Jim DeMint endorsed Ken Buck, Marco Rubio and Pat Toomey for the US Senate, and not Jane Norton.

Colorado US Senate GOP Primary Survey (4/19/10)

Download survey toplines and crosstabs below.

CO US Senate GOP Primary Survey Topline Results 042010

CO US Senate GOP Primary Survey Crosstabs 042010

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