Pennsylvania 2012 General Election Survey (9/19/11)

Magellan Strategies today released the results of an autodial survey of 702 likely 2012 Pennsylvania general election voters.

The survey finds Barack Obama comfortably leading potential Republican challengers Mitt Romney by 10 points (50% to 40%) and Rick Perry by 15 points (52% to 37%). The President has solid support among voters that overwhelmingly backed him in 2008, including women, voters aged 18 to 34, and self-described moderate voters. It is clear from this survey that those key voting subgroups are still very much with him. Despite this good news for Barack Obama, the mood of these voters is pessimistic, with 62% of women, 64% of self-described moderates, and 54% of voters 18 to 34 feeling things in the country are on the wrong track. It remains to be seen if the eventual Republican nominee can appeal to these voters after the primary.

With that said, it should be noted that Pennsylvania is very tough ground for any Republican Presidential candidate, with statewide voter registration at 51% Democrat, 37% Republican and 12% independent/other. Although Pennsylvania has elected many Republican candidates to statewide office, the last time a Republican Presidential candidate carried the state was in 1988.

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Pennsylvania 2012 General Election Survey Release 091911

Pennsylvania 2012 General Election Survey Topline Results 091911

Pennsylvania 2012 General Election Survey Crosstabs 091911

Pennsylvania 2012 General Election Survey Presentation 091911

North Carolina 2012 General Election Survey (9/12/11)

CORRECTION TO CROSSTABS AS OF 4:42EST, SEPTEMBER 12TH , 2011

Our initial set of crosstabs this morning contained an error in the “Other” column under the ”RACE” tabs. The initial set of crosstabs showed the same number of BLACK respondents (194), in the OTHER column within the RACE category. This errror has been corrected, and the tabs now show the correct number of OTHER respondents as 18. THIS ERROR CORRECTION DOES NOT CHANGE THE RESPONSE PERCENTAGES FOR ANY QUESTION IN THE SURVEY. The error only reflected an incorrect number of respondents for “other” responses within the race category. Any further questions regarding this error should be directed to David Flaherty at 303-861-8585 or dflaherty@magellanstrategies.com.

Magellan Strategies today released the results of an autodial survey of 923 likely 2012 North Carolina general election voters. The survey finds likely 2012 North Carolina voters in a very pessimistic mood, with 70% thinking the country is off on the wrong track, and only 23% thinking things are headed in the right direction. Independent voters feel slightly worse than all respondents, with only 13% believing that things are headed in the right direction.

The Obama-Romney ballot test finds Barack Obama leading Mitt Romney by 2 points, 45% to 43% respectively, a statistical tie. Looking at the results by major voter subgroup, we see Barack Obama doing well among female voters and very well among African-American voters. Mitt Romney is doing well among seniors, independents, voters aged 18 to 34, and white voters.

The Obama-Perry ballot test finds Barack Obama leading Rick Perry by 5 points, with 48% of respondents supporting the President, and 43% supporting Rick Perry.

The Perdue-McCrory ballot test finds Pat McCrory leading Governor Perdue by 1 point, a statistical tie, with 44% of respondents supporting Pat McCrory, and 43%, supporting Beverly Perdue. Pat McCrory is doing well among independents, voters aged 18-34 and white voters, and Beverly Perdue does well among African American voters.

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North Carolina 2012 General Election Survey Release 091211

North Carolina 2012 General Election Survey Topline Results 091211

North Carolina 2012 General Election Survey Crosstabs 091211

North Carolina 2012 General Election Survey Presentation 091211

Nevada 2012 Republican Presidential Caucus Survey (9/2/11)

Magellan Strategies today released the results of an autodial survey of 631 likely 2012 Nevada Republican Presidential caucus attendees. The survey finds Rick Perry leading Mitt Romney by 5 points. Among all voters, Rick Perry has 29% support and Mitt Romney has 24% support. The rest of the Republican field rounds out with Herman Cain with 7%, Michele Bachmann with 6%, Ron Paul with 6%, Newt Gingrich with 5%, Rick Santorum and Jon Huntsman with 1% each, the generic “other candidate” with 2%, and 19% are undecided.

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Nevada 2012 Republican Presidential Caucus Survey Release 090211

Nevada 2012 Republican Presidential Caucus Survey Topline Results 090111

Nevada 2012 Republican Presidential Caucus Survey Crosstabs 090111

Nevada 2012 Republican Presidential Caucus Survey Presentation 090111

Florida 2012 General Election Survey (8/23/11)

Magellan Data and Mapping Strategies today released the results of an autodial survey of 723 likely 2012 general election voters in Florida, fielded August 16th, 17th and 18th. This survey finds an electorate in a sour mood with only 20% of respondents thinking things in the country are headed in the right direction, and 72% thinking things are off on the wrong track. These numbers should be alarming for all incumbents, regardless of party.

Barack Obama and his team have a lot of work to do with Florida voters to hold on to the state’s 29 electoral votes in 2012. The survey asked three questions to measure voter opinion of the President, including image rating, job approval and re-elect rating. The findings of all three questions show the President in “net-negative” territory among all voters and key voter subgroup constituencies.

This survey tested the image ratings of three Republican Presidential candidates, Mitt Romney, Michele Bachmann and Rick Perry. None of the three Republican Presidential candidates have strong image ratings at this time. Among all respondents, 38% have a favorable opinion of Mitt Romney and 40% have an unfavorable opinion, and 20% have heard of Mitt Romney but do not have an opinion of him. Rick Perry’s image rating shows 33% having a favorable opinion of him, 30% having an unfavorable opinion, and 28% having heard of him but do not have an opinion of him. Michele Bachmann’s image rating is upside down by 10 points, with 33% having a favorable opinion of her, 43% having an unfavorable opinion, and 19% having heard of her but do not have an opinion.

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Magellan Florida 2012 General Election Survey Release 082311

Magellan Florida 2012 General Election Survey Topline Results 082311

Magellan Florida 2012 General Election Survey Crosstabs 082311

Magellan Florida 2012 General Election Survey Presentation 082311

New Hampshire 2012 Republican Presidential Primary Survey (8/17/11)

Magellan Data and Mapping Strategies and NHJournal.com today released a New Hampshire autodial survey of 613 likely Republican primary voters, and independent voters that are likely to vote in the 2012 Republican Presidential primary. The survey finds Mitt Romney maintaining a solid 18 point lead in New Hampshire with 36% support, followed by Rick Perry with 18%, and Ron Paul with 14%. Michele Bachmann rounds out the top tier with 10% support.

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NH 2012 GOP Presidential Primary Survey Release 081811

NH 2012 Republican Primary Survey Crosstabs 081711

NH 2012 Republican Primary Survey Topline Results 081711

NH 2012 Republican Primary Survey Presentation 081711