Arizona General Election Survey (5/3/12)

Louisville, CO – Magellan Strategies today released the results of an automated survey of 909 likely Arizona general election voters.  The survey was commissioned by Arizona political consulting firm DC London, Inc.  The survey was fielded on April 30th, May 1st, and May 2nd, and has a margin of error of 3.25% at the 95 percent confidence interval.  The survey measures voter opinion among a wide array of issues and election contests, including the Presidential and US Senate match-ups.

The media has indicated recently that Arizona is in play for the 2012 Presidential election.  In the 2008 election President Obama won 45% of the vote to John McCain’s 54%, a margin of 9%.  This survey finds a similar spread among likely 2012 general election voters in Arizona, with 52% supporting Mitt Romney, 43% supporting Barack Obama and 5% responding undecided.

Download Survey Press Release, Topline and Crosstab Results Below

Magellan Arizona General Election Survey Press Release 050312

Magellan Arizona General Election Survey Crosstabs Release 050312

 

Nebraska 2012 US Senate General Election Survey (11/28/11)

Magellan Strategies today released the results of an automated survey of 645 likely 2012 Nebraska general election voters fielded on November 20th and 21st.  The survey measured image ratings and ballot tests of incumbent Democrat Senator Ben Nelson, and Republican candidates Jon Bruning, Don Stenberg, and Deb Fischer.  The survey also included Republican Governor Dave Heineman, although he announced in November of 2010 that he would not be a candidate for the US Senate in 2012.

Among the three announced Republican candidates tested in the survey, Attorney General Jon Bruning is currently the strongest candidate to face Ben Nelson, with 45% supporting Jon Bruning and 39% supporting Ben Nelson, and 16% of respondents undecided.   The Nelson-Stenberg ballot test is a statistical tie, with Don Stenberg leading Ben Nelson by one point, 41% to 40% respectively.  Ben Nelson leads State Senator Deb Fischer by 6 points, 41% to 35% respectively.

The strongest Republican candidate that is not in the US Senate race is Governor Dave Heineman.  In this hypothetical matchup the survey finds Dave Heineman leading Ben Nelson by 18 points, 51% to 33% respectively.   Dave Heineman is the only Republican candidate tested that wins a plurality of independent voters.

Download survey press release, toplines, crosstabs and presentation below.

NE 2012 US Senate General Election Survey Press Release 112811

NE 2012 US Senate General Election Survey Topline Results 112811

NE 2012 US Senate General Election Survey Crosstabs 112811

NE 2012 US Senate General Election Survey Presentation 112811

Arizona 2012 US Senate Republican Primary Survey (11/16/11)

Magellan Strategies today released the results of an automated landline phone survey of 722 likely 2012 Arizona Republican primary voters and independent voters that intend to vote in the Republican primary. At this early stage in the primary election, Congressman Jeff Flake leads likely challengers by 44 points with 52%, and 31% responding they definitely intend to vote for him. The generic “some other candidate” has 8%, businessman Will Cardon has 4%, and radio host Clair Van Steenwyk has 2%. Businessman Doug McKee and former Youngstown Mayor Bryan Hackbarth have 1% and 32% responded as undecided.

Download survey press release, toplines, crosstabs and presentation below.

AZ 2012 US Senate Republican Primary Election Survey Press Release 111611

AZ 2012 US Senate Republican Primary Election Survey Topline Results 111611

AZ 2012 US Senate Republican Primary Election Survey Crosstabs 111611

AZ 2012 US Senate Republican Primary Election Survey Presentation 111611

Ohio Issue 2 and Issue 3 Post General Election Survey (11/16/11)

Louisville, CO – Magellan Strategies today released the results of an automated landline phone survey of 623 Ohio voters that participated in the 2011 general election. Last Tuesday’s ballot issues in Ohio presented voters with an opportunity to voice their opinions on two issues that will likely be at the forefront of the 2012 election cycle: limiting the collective bargaining rights of state employee unions and Obamacare. Sixty one percent of voters supported the repeal of Senate Bill 5, and 66% supported a constitutional amendment that allows Ohioans to “opt -out” of the new federal health care reform law.

What do these results mean for President Obama’s chances of holding Ohio in 2012? Were the Issue 2 NO voters and Issue 3 YES voters intending to send a message to the President in support or opposition of these policy issues? The Issue 2 and Issue 3 results mean that Ohio will remain a toss-up state in the 2012 Presidential election. The survey finds Democrat and Republican core constituencies’ crossing over and voting for issues that political observers would not expect to see. Among respondents that voted NO on Issue 2, 37% voted YES on Issue 3, and 39% of Issue 3 YES respondents voted NO on Issue 2.

Was the Issue 2 victory a resounding message of support for President Obama? Not necessarily, with only 29% of Issue 2 NO voters responding that President Obama’s involvement was either extremely or very important when making their decision to vote NO on Issue 2. It appears repealing Senate Bill 5 was more about rejecting a law that 61% of Ohioans disagreed with, and less about the President.

In comparison, among Issue 3 YES voters, 44% responded that President Obama’s involvement in the new federal health care law was either extremely or very important when making their decision. Ohio still remains a battleground in the 2012 Presidential election, and both the Obama Campaign and the Republican nominee will be fighting hard to win the state. It is very important to note that the survey results are among voters that voted in the 2011 general election, not likely 2012 general election voters.

Download survey press release, toplines, crosstabs and presentation below.

Ohio 2011 Post General Election Survey Press Release 111611

Ohio 2011 Post General Election Survey Topline Results 111511

Ohio 2011 Post General Election Survey Crosstabs 111511

Ohio 2011 Post General Election Survey Presentation 111511

Nevada 2012 Republican Presidential Caucus Survey (10/24/11)

Louisville, CO – Magellan Strategies today released the results of an autodial survey of 673 likely Nevada Republican Presidential caucus goers. The survey finds Mitt Romney leading Herman Cain by 12 points, 38% to 26% respectively, and Newt Gingrich third with 16%. The rest of the field shows Ron Paul with 7%, Rick Perry with 5%, Michele Bachmann with 2%, Rick Santorum with 1%, Jon Huntsman with 1%, and “some other candidate” with 1%. Three percent of respondents are undecided.

Since our last survey at the end of August, Mitt Romney has increased his overall support by 14 points from 24% to 38%. Looking at the ballot test by voter subgroup, we find Mitt Romney with very large margins among women (+22), seniors (+18), and not surprisingly Mormon voters (+67). Among all respondents, 16% identified themselves as Mormon. The race is much tighter among male voters (Romney +2), self-identified Tea Party members (Romney -2) and voters that did not vote in the 2008 Nevada GOP Presidential Caucus (Romney -1). We consider the latter two populations “Sharon Angle” voters, and if Mitt Romney can remain competitive among these two groups he will be in a strong position to win.

Download survey press release, toplines, crosstabs and presentation below.

NV 2012 Republican Presidential Caucus Survey Release 102411

NV 2012 Republican Presidential Caucus Survey Topline Results 102411

NV 2012 Republican Presidential Caucus Survey Crosstabs 102411

NV 2012 Republican Presidential Caucus Survey Presentation 102411


 

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