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How Many People Are Going to Vote in Colorado on Election Day?

Colorado voters are returning their ballots at a strong pace. Today the overall count of ballots returned exceeded 1 million, and 120,634 more ballots have been returned compared to the same time in 2012. Democrats have also maintained their lead over Republicans in ballots returned, which stands at 28,570. To put things in perspective, what does the Democrat early voting lead mean, and what does voter turnout look like on Election Day?

2012 Colorado Voter Turnout on Election Day

A total of 2,508,048 votes were cast in 2012, and approximately 1,707,221, or 68% of ballots were cast early in-person or by absentee. On Election Day, turnout by party was 31.6% Republican (253,363), 29% Democrat (232,893), and 37,9% unaffiliated (304,105). ┬áComparing these numbers by party we find that 20,470 more Republicans turned out on Election Day than Democrats. It is also interesting to note that on the day before the election Republicans had a 34,466 early vote lead over Democrats. However, don’t assume a lead in early voting or Election Day turnout automatically translates into victory,┬áRepublican Mitt Romney lost to President Barack Obama by 137,948 votes in 2012.

Will an All-Mail-Ballot Election Result in Fewer Votes on Election Day?

Another question we are trying to answer is if the percentage of Election Day votes (32% in 2012) will be lower due to the all-mail-ballot process? This is a tough one to answer, but I believe the Election Day percentage of total votes cast will either stay the same or show a very slight decrease.  The fact is voters are creatures of habit, and if they preferred to drop off their ballot on Election Day, we assume they will continue to do so. We are also watching for a larger number of Republicans voting on Election Day than normal, because they are unsure about their decision for President.

We shall see in seven days.