How Well Did Our Polling Forecast the Outcome of 11 Ballot Measures in 2021?
Magellan Strategies has conducted more than 300 local ballot measure surveys in Colorado since 2007. Each year we do an internal audit to understand how well our polling held up against the actual results. Following is our polling report card for the 2021 cycle. We had the privilege of conducting voter opinion research projects measuring support and opposition levels for 11 ballot measures.
Of the 11 ballot measures we polled, we accurately predicted the outcome of the election in all 11. As for accuracy, we projected the yes percentage within 1% of the final outcome in 3 elections, within 3% in another 3 elections, 4% in 1 election, and 6% in 1 election. In three elections we under measured the yes support by more than 9%.
However, those elections are what we call “runaways” where the yes or no support is very strong, and it is challenging to measure the full momentum of the outcome. What is more important to our clients is identifying that the result will very likely be a “runaway” and nailing the final number is not that important. That is what happened in the Boulder ballot measures and the EagleVail Metro District property tax fees.
We are very proud of our polling record this cycle and for maintaining the highest standards for polling accuracy and ballot measure forecasting. Contact us today to learn how we can help you pass your next ballot measure.
|Town of Monument 2F Police Funding .5% Sales Tax Increase||64% Yes||63% Yes||1%|
|Town of Monument 2G Begin Home Rule Process||62% Yes||59% Yes||3%|
|City of Boulder 2I 0.3% Sales Tax Extention for Capital Projects||74% Yes||85% Yes||11%|
|City of Boulder 2J $110 Million Bond for Capital Projects||65% Yes||79% Yes||14%|
|City of Lafayette 2B .27% Sales Tax Increase for Public Safety||67% Yes||66% Yes||1%|
|City of Lafayette 2C .1% Sales Tax Increase for Mental Health||72% Yes||71% Yes||1%|
|Town of Vail 2A .5% Sales Tax Increase for Affordable Housing||57% Yes||54% Yes||3%|
|Mesa County Valley School District 51 $115 Bond for High School||61% Yes||65% Yes||4%|
|EagleVail Metro District Property Tax Freeze||61% Yes||72% Yes||10%|
|City of Golden Ballot Measure 2A Allow Retail Marijuana||54% Yes||51% Yes||3%|
|Moffat County School District RE-1 $40 million Bond for Schools||43% Yes||37% Yes||6%|