The Magellan Strategies 2021 Ballot Measure Report Card

How Well Did Our Polling Forecast the Outcome of 11 Ballot Measures in 2021?

Magellan Strategies has conducted more than 300 local ballot measure surveys in Colorado since 2007. Each year we do an internal audit to understand how well our polling held up against the actual results. Following is our polling report card for the 2021 cycle. We had the privilege of conducting voter opinion research projects measuring support and opposition levels for 11 ballot measures.

Of the 11 ballot measures we polled, we accurately predicted the outcome of the election in all 11. As for accuracy, we projected the yes percentage within 1% of the final outcome in 3 elections, within 3% in another 3 elections, 4% in 1 election, and 6% in 1 election. In three elections we under measured the yes support by more than 9%.

However, those elections are what we call “runaways” where the yes or no support is very strong, and it is challenging to measure the full momentum of the outcome. What is more important to our clients is identifying that the result will very likely be a “runaway” and nailing the final number is not that important. That is what happened in the Boulder ballot measures and the EagleVail Metro District property tax fees.

We are very proud of our polling record this cycle and for maintaining the highest standards for polling accuracy and ballot measure forecasting. Contact us today to learn how we can help you pass your next ballot measure.



Ballot Measure
Magellan
Polling
Projection

Actual
Results


Difference
Town of Monument 2F Police Funding .5% Sales Tax Increase64% Yes63% Yes1%
Town of Monument 2G Begin Home Rule Process62% Yes59% Yes3%
City of Boulder 2I 0.3% Sales Tax Extention for Capital Projects 74% Yes85% Yes11%
City of Boulder 2J $110 Million Bond for Capital Projects65% Yes79% Yes14%
City of Lafayette 2B .27% Sales Tax Increase for Public Safety67% Yes66% Yes1%
City of Lafayette 2C .1% Sales Tax Increase for Mental Health72% Yes71% Yes1%
Town of Vail 2A .5% Sales Tax Increase for Affordable Housing57% Yes54% Yes3%
Mesa County Valley School District 51 $115 Bond for High School61% Yes65% Yes4%
EagleVail Metro District Property Tax Freeze61% Yes72% Yes10%
City of Golden Ballot Measure 2A Allow Retail Marijuana54% Yes51% Yes3%
Moffat County School District RE-1 $40 million Bond for Schools43% Yes37% Yes6%
The percentages shown are unofficial results as of November 4th, 2021

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