[fusion_builder_container background_color=”” background_image=”” background_parallax=”none” enable_mobile=”no” parallax_speed=”0.3″ background_repeat=”no-repeat” background_position=”left top” video_url=”” video_aspect_ratio=”16:9″ video_webm=”” video_mp4=”” video_ogv=”” video_preview_image=”” overlay_color=”” video_mute=”yes” video_loop=”yes” fade=”no” border_size=”0px” border_color=”” border_style=”solid” padding_top=”20″ padding_bottom=”20″ padding_left=”” padding_right=”” hundred_percent=”no” equal_height_columns=”no” hide_on_mobile=”no” menu_anchor=”” class=”” id=””][fusion_builder_row][fusion_builder_column type=”1_1″ layout=”1_1″ background_position=”left top” background_color=”” border_size=”” border_color=”” border_style=”solid” spacing=”yes” background_image=”” background_repeat=”no-repeat” padding_top=”” padding_right=”” padding_bottom=”” padding_left=”” margin_top=”0px” margin_bottom=”0px” class=”” id=”” animation_type=”” animation_speed=”0.3″ animation_direction=”left” hide_on_mobile=”no” center_content=”no” min_height=”none” last=”no” hover_type=”none” link=”” border_position=”all”][fusion_button link=”https://magellanstrategies.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/Colorado-National-Popular-Vote-Voter-Opinion-Survey-Release-032119.pdf” text_transform=”” title=”” target=”_blank” link_attributes=”” alignment=”left” modal=”” hide_on_mobile=”small-visibility,medium-visibility,large-visibility” class=”” id=”” color=”blue” button_gradient_top_color=”#1e73be” button_gradient_bottom_color=”#1e73be” button_gradient_top_color_hover=”” button_gradient_bottom_color_hover=”” accent_color=”” accent_hover_color=”” type=”” bevel_color=”” border_width=”” size=”medium” stretch=”default” shape=”square” icon=”” icon_position=”left” icon_divider=”no” animation_type=”” animation_direction=”left” animation_speed=”1.0″ animation_offset=””]Download Survey Summary[/fusion_button][fusion_button link=”https://magellanstrategies.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/Colorado-National-Popular-Vote-Voter-Opinion-Survey-Presentation-032119.pdf” text_transform=”” title=”” target=”_blank” link_attributes=”” alignment=”left” modal=”” hide_on_mobile=”small-visibility,medium-visibility,large-visibility” class=”” id=”” color=”blue” button_gradient_top_color=”#1e73be” button_gradient_bottom_color=”#1e73be” button_gradient_top_color_hover=”” button_gradient_bottom_color_hover=”” accent_color=”” accent_hover_color=”” type=”” bevel_color=”” border_width=”” size=”medium” stretch=”default” shape=”square” icon=”” icon_position=”left” icon_divider=”no” animation_type=”” animation_direction=”left” animation_speed=”1.0″ animation_offset=””]Download Survey Presentation[/fusion_button][/fusion_builder_column][/fusion_builder_row][/fusion_builder_container][fusion_builder_container hundred_percent=”yes” overflow=”visible”][fusion_builder_row][fusion_builder_column type=”1_1″ layout=”1_1″ background_position=”left top” background_color=”” border_size=”” border_color=”” border_style=”solid” spacing=”yes” background_image=”” background_repeat=”no-repeat” padding_top=”” padding_right=”” padding_bottom=”” padding_left=”” margin_top=”0px” margin_bottom=”0px” class=”” id=”” animation_type=”” animation_speed=”0.3″ animation_direction=”left” hide_on_mobile=”no” center_content=”no” min_height=”none” last=”no” hover_type=”none” link=”” border_position=”all”][fusion_text columns=”” column_min_width=”” column_spacing=”” rule_style=”default” rule_size=”” rule_color=”” hide_on_mobile=”small-visibility,medium-visibility,large-visibility” class=”” id=””]
National Popular Voter Colorado Voter Opinion Survey
Today Magellan Strategies released a survey of 500 likely 2020 general election voters in the state of Colorado. The interviews were conducted March 11th – 13th, 2019. The overall results have a margin of error of +/- 4.38% at the 95 percent confidence interval. The survey data was slightly weighted to reflect the voter turnout demographics of past presidential election cycles in Colorado.
Survey Overview
The focus of this survey was to measure and understand Colorado voter opinion of the National Popular Vote law.
Key Findings:
- At this time, likely 2020 Colorado general election voters do not have an informed opinion of the National Popular Vote law, with only 34% of respondents having a favorable opinion of it, 39% having an unfavorable opinion, and 27% not having any opinion of the law.
- Voters are more familiar with the Electoral College than the National Popular Vote law. Among all respondents, 49% said they had a favorable opinion of the Electoral College and 47% had an unfavorable opinion of it, and 4% had no opinion.
- Colorado voters are evenly divided on a possible ballot measure that would affirm or repeal the National Popular Vote law. Among all respondents, 47% of voters would vote yes and approve the law and 47% would vote no and reject it. Six percent of voters were undecided.
- Support for the NPV law is strongest among Democratic and younger voters, while opposition is strongest among Republican and older voters. Unaffiliated voter opinion is evenly split, with 44% supporting the law and 48% opposing it.
- Voter intensity is stronger among voters that oppose the law, with 35% of respondents saying they would definitely vote no and reject it compared to 23% of respondents saying they would definitely vote yes and approve it.
- Opposition to the NPV ballot measure is not limited to Republicans and Trump voters. Among respondents that oppose the ballot measure, 14% intend to vote for the Democratic Presidential nominee and 13% intend to vote for “some other candidate”.
- Historically, it has been very difficult for a Colorado ballot measure to achieve voter approval when initial support at the start of the campaign is below 55%. This survey finds voter support for the NPV law at 47%. Among respondents that are very familiar with the NPV law voter support is 30% and opposition is 69%, indicating voter opinion declines the more they learn about the law.
Colorado Voter Opinion of the National Popular Vote Law
At this time, only 34% of likely voters have a favorable opinion of the National Popular Vote Law, 39% have an unfavorable opinion and 27% do not have an opinion of the law. Republicans overwhelmingly have a negative opinion of the law, and a majority of Democratic voters have a favorable opinion of it. Unaffiliated voters are evenly split in their opinion of the law, with 36% having a favorable opinion of it and 38% an unfavorable opinion.
Colorado Voter Opinion of the Electoral College
Voter opinion is evenly split regarding opinions of the Electoral College, with 49% of respondents having a favorable opinion of the current process of electing a president and vice president and 47% having an unfavorable opinion. Republican respondents appear to understand that a change to a National Popular Vote system would likely make it more difficult to elect a Republican candidate. Democratic voters also appear to understand the benefits of a National Popular Vote system for a Democratic presidential candidate, with 73% having an unfavorable opinion of the Electoral College.
National Popular Vote Ballot Test
Currently, 47% of likely 2020 general election voters would vote yes and approve a National Popular Vote law and 47% would vote no and reject the law. However, voter intensity is stronger among respondents that oppose the law, with 35% of saying they would definitely vote no and reject the law compared to 23% who say they would definitely vote yes and approve the law.
Republican voters demonstrate a stronger intensity in opposing the law (70% definitely voting no) than Democratic voters do in supporting it (40% definitely voting yes). Among voters that intend to vote for Donald Trump, 86% oppose the ballot measure and 76% of voters that intend to vote for the Democratic presidential candidate support it. Unaffiliated voters are divided in their opinion of the NPV law, with 44% supporting it and 48% opposing it, and they will likely be the voter subgroup to decide if the ballot measure passes or fails.
“As you may know, there is an effort underway that would give Colorado voters the opportunity to vote to approve or reject the National Popular Vote law. I am now going to read to you the language of a ballot question that would do that. After hearing the question, please tell me if you would vote yes and approve it, or if you would vote no and reject it. The ballot question reads as…
SHALL THE FOLLOWING ACT OF THE GENERAL ASSEMBLY BE APPROVED: AN ACT, CONCERNING ADOPTION OF AN AGREEMENT AMONG THE STATES TO ELECT THE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES BY NATIONAL POPULAR VOTE, BEING SENATE BILL NUMBER 19-042?”
Conclusion
Voters that are likely to vote in the 2020 general election are evenly divided in their opinions of approving the National Popular Vote law. There is a strong correlation between party affiliation and support or opposition to the law, with Republicans overwhelmingly opposing the law and Democratic voters generally supporting it. Unaffiliated voters are evenly divided in their opinion of the law and will likely be the voter subgroup to decide whether a possible NPV ballot measure passes or fails. However, voters that oppose the ballot measure demonstrate a stronger intensity than do Democratic voters that support the law.
It is also important to recognize a possible tactical advantage for the NO side when considering voter support for the NPV law is at 47%, well below a preferred 55% support. Historically, opposition to a ballot measure grows over time and the percentage of voters that oppose a ballot measure usually increases. Colorado voter opposition to an NPV ballot measure very well may play similarly. We shall see.
Survey Methodology
This telephone survey was conducted using live interviewers dialing landline and cell phone sample. The sample used for this survey was randomly drawn from a Colorado voter file. The survey response data was weighted to reflect voter demographics of past presidential elections in Colorado. The interviews were conducted on March 11th to 13th, 2019. Three attempts were made to interview each household in the sample. This survey has a margin of error of +/- 4.38% at the 95 percent confidence interval. For any questions regarding the survey findings or methodology please contact David Flaherty at 303-861- 8585 or email at dflaherty@magellanstrategies.com.
Please click the links above to download the full survey summary and presentation.
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