Arapahoe County 2024 Ballot Language Survey

Magellan Strategies is pleased to present the topline results of a survey of 2,017 voters in Arapahoe County, Colorado. The interviews were conducted from May 21st to June 3rd, 2024.

This survey examined Arapahoe County voter sentiment toward potential ballot measures to generate additional revenue for county services. Half of respondents believed the county had sufficient financial resources for the foreseeable future, while 29% disagreed and 21% had no opinion.

The survey tested multiple ballot measure variations, beginning with uninformed ballot tests before respondents received detailed information about county needs. A proposed 0.25% sales tax increase (excluding food and prescription drugs) initially received 51% approval versus 42% rejection. Alternative measures allowing the county to retain and spend revenue exceeding constitutional limitations without new taxes showed varying levels of support, with the highest approval (60%) for a version emphasizing “without increasing the tax rate.”

When given a choice between measure types, voters preferred revenue retention measures over the sales tax increase by margins of 43% to 28% and 42% to 26% in different comparisons. The survey then provided respondents with information about county services, budget challenges, and potential impacts of funding cuts.

Multiple messaging points tested favorably with voters. The strongest performing messages emphasized maintaining roads and bridges (62% more likely to approve), investing in essential services that benefit the community (62%), and quality of life preservation (55%). Messages about budget shortfalls forcing service cuts, public safety impacts, and challenges attracting qualified staff also resonated, with 55-56% of respondents indicating they were more likely to approve funding measures after hearing these arguments. Messages about endorsements from local mayors and councilmembers had limited impact, with roughly equal numbers saying such support would make them more or less likely to approve.

After receiving information about county needs and services, support for the sales tax measure increased slightly to 52% approval versus 37% rejection. Support for revenue retention measures ranged from 39% to 50% approval depending on the specific language, with versions emphasizing no tax rate increases performing better than simpler versions.

Respondents who supported new revenue cited the need for essential services, shared responsibility through sales taxes, infrastructure investment, and viewing the cost as a small sacrifice for community benefit. Those opposed expressed concerns about high existing tax burdens, government mismanagement of funds, the regressive nature of sales taxes, and demands for greater accountability and transparency in spending.

The survey found that most respondents (51%) had heard no information about potential service cuts in Arapahoe County prior to the survey, while only 7% had heard a lot of information. A strong majority (68%) indicated they were extremely likely to vote in a November county ballot measure election.