Colorado 2023 Proposition HH Ballot Measure Survey

Magellan Strategies is pleased to present the topline results of an online survey of 662 registered voters from the state of Colorado. The interviews were conducted from June 21st – July 7th, 2023.

Colorado registered voters entered the survey with a generally pessimistic view of economic conditions. Nearly half rated the national economy as poor, and about four in ten expected the national economy to worsen over the next year. Views of the state and local economies were somewhat less negative but still mixed, with pluralities rating them as only fair and sizable shares expecting conditions to worsen. Housing-related costs were a major concern: among renters, nearly nine in ten said the rising cost of rent was a big concern, and among homeowners, more than two-thirds said rising residential property taxes were a big concern.

Familiarity with Proposition HH was limited at the outset. Only 35% said they were very or somewhat familiar with the measure, while nearly two-thirds said they were not too familiar or not familiar at all. After reading the ballot language, a narrow majority initially supported Proposition HH, with 54% saying they would vote to approve it, 34% opposed, and 12% undecided. This initial support reflected the appeal of property tax relief for homeowners and businesses and the promise of funding for schools and local governments using a portion of the state surplus.

As voters learned more details about the measure, reactions became more divided. Information explaining that Proposition HH would increase the state revenue limit by 1% for ten years and reduce future TABOR refunds made a majority more likely to reject the measure than approve it. By contrast, details about direct property tax relief—such as reduced assessment rates, estimated annual savings for homeowners, and a temporary reduction in assessed home values—generally moved more voters toward support, though often by narrow margins with substantial shares remaining conflicted.

Provisions benefiting seniors were among the most persuasive elements of the measure. Expanding the Senior Homestead Property Tax Exemption from $100,000 to $140,000 and allowing it to transfer to a new home made nearly two-thirds more likely to approve Proposition HH. Charts showing reduced property tax bills for owner-occupied homes and seniors compared with scenarios where Prop HH was rejected also increased support, with a majority saying this information made them more likely to vote yes.

Concerns grew when voters considered impacts on local governments and TABOR refunds. Explanations that only a portion of retained state revenue would backfill lost local property tax revenue—and that many local governments could receive less than their full losses or be ineligible—pushed more voters toward opposition. Information about participatory or “truth in taxation,” which would allow elected officials rather than voters to decide to retain property tax revenue, was especially damaging, making nearly six in ten more likely to reject the measure. Reactions to changes in TABOR refund structures, including flat-rate refunds and potential shifts back to income-based refunds, were mixed and often leaned negative.

After reviewing all information, overall support for Proposition HH declined. In the final informed ballot test, 43% said they would vote to approve the measure, 46% said they would vote to reject it, and 11% remained undecided. While voters continued to show strong support for funding specific local services such as streets, fire districts, police, and teacher pay through separate ballot measures, Proposition HH itself finished slightly underwater. The results showed that although property tax relief and senior benefits resonated, concerns about reduced TABOR refunds, local government funding uncertainty, and limits on voter control ultimately weakened support for the measure.

Among undecided voters at the close of the survey, sentiment leaned toward rejection rather than approval. When asked to choose a direction, roughly twice as many undecided voters said they leaned toward voting no and rejecting Proposition HH as said they leaned toward voting yes, and a large majority of undecided voters remained uncommitted even when pressed. Additionally, the statutory nature of the referendum—meaning future state legislatures could alter it—made more voters likely to reject the measure than approve it, suggesting that the lack of permanence added another layer of skepticism among an already cautious electorate.